My Thoughts: The August Oscars

Well, now that the nominations are to be announced Sunday, I thought I would share just a few of my thoughts on this months Big 8...

***...***- Indicates who I belive will be the winner
*...*- Indicates who I feel is the Possible Upset

Best Picture
Bee Bee's Funhouse
Deep Secret
*Fallout*
***The Man Who Invented Rock Hudson***
Six Days in '67
Possible Upset: The Picture of Dorian Gray

I really feel that this will be the Best Picture lineup this month. I don't think that Quiet Room or Gray will get in the category though if either of them do, I bet it will take the place of '67. I strongly believe that Josh will be rewarded for Rock Hudson which is a terrific biopic, but don't be surprised if Matt gets his first Best Picture win.

Best Director
*Jack Bender, Fallout*
Johnathan Demme, Bee Bee's Funhouse
***Ang Lee, The Winter Sun***
David Lynch, Quiet Room
Anthony Minghella, Deep Secret
Possible Upset: Antoine Fuqua, Six Days in '67

It's a strong lineup that leaves two Best Picture director out. It's a classic lineup that has always worked in the contest and in the real Oscars too. I would expect for Ang Lee to win because he has the most buzz and I think it's a good choice, however, because Fallout was widely love, Zgamer could take his 2nd consecutive Best Director win.

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, Bee Bee's Funhouse
***Brian Cox, Deep Secret***
Michael Imperioli, The Man Who Invented Rock Hudson
*Tom Hanks, The Winter Sun*
Chiwetel Ejiofer, Six Days in '67
Possible Upset: Will Smith, The Courtroom

I'm going to guess the Oscars will copy the Golden Globes because Will Smith has absolutely no buzz at all. I'm thinking that Cox will win because the role is well written and its baity. I agree with Pat and I think that voters will tire of The Soprano's domination in the acting categories. Tom Hanks could easily be the surprise winner.

Best Actress
***Jennifer Connelly, Quiet Room***
Christine Ebersole, Grey Gardens
Diane Lane, Rabbit Hole
*Kerry Washington, Six Days in '67*
Siquorney Weaver, Equality
Possible Upset: Catherine Zeta Jones, The Munsters With Yvonne De Carlo

I think this category is going to be the surprise of the month by leaving out Zeta Jones. I really think this will go normal this month and reward Connelly. Don't be surprised if voters want to reward '67 and vote Washington the winner.

Best Supporting Actor
***James Gandolfini, The Winter Sun***
Greg Kinnear, Rabbit Hole
Ewan McGregor, Deep Secret
Julian McMahon, The Man Who Invented Rock Hudson
*Daniel Radcliffe, Foggy London Nights*
Possible Upset: Justin Theroux, Quiet Room

Something tells me this is what the lineup is going to be and I think Gandolfini is a shoe-in. It's a great role and all of The Sopranos love doesn't hurt. Don't be surprised if Radcliffe wins though, seeing as a lot of the ballots were probably made before he got a major dropoff in support.

Best Supporting Actress
***Kathy Bates, Rabbit Hole***
Jill Clayburgh, Grey Gardens
Claire Danes, Grey Gardens
*Edie Falco, Everyday*
Robin Wright Penn, Quiet Room
Possible Upset: Jennifer Hudson, Bat Out of Hell

I'm really going out on a limb and saying Claire Danes will make the cut for Grey Gardens. I certainly hope it happens, and personally I would like her to win. I think Bates will win and Edie will fall short of the statue and the Academy will only reward one former member of the Soprano family, that being the head of it.

Best Original Screenplay
*Bee Bee's Funhouse*
Foggy London Nights
Quiet Room
***Six Days in '67***
The Winter Sun
Possible Upset: The Courtroom

I'm betting on a possible surprise nominee with Funhouse and a surprise win possibly also. I think '67 is the logical choice because it will probably end up around #3 of the BP nominees and that is the highest of the Original Screenplays.

Best Adapted Screenplay
***Deep Secret***
Fallout
Grey Gardens
The Man Who Invented Rock Hudson
*The Picture of Dorian Gray*
Possible Upset: Charlie Brown, Zelda, or Rabbit Hole

I would argue that this category is the most competitive that it has ever been in this contest and that every bait that ends up in this category should be honored when usually this is a throw away category because many of the adapted baits turn out to be bad. Anyway, I think that is the logical lineup, but don't be surprised if Grey Gardens is subsituted for one of the 3 other baits. I think Secret will win, with Gray a close second.

Here are my guesses for the Top 10 Baits of the Month...

1. The Man Who Invented Rock Hudson
2. Deep Secret
3. Six Days in '67
4. Fallout
5. Bee Bee's Funhouse
6. The Picture of Dorian Gray
7. Quiet Room
8. The Winter Sun
9. Bat Out of Hell
10. You're A Good Man, Charlie Brown