To Predict or Not to Predict

This months precursors and Oscars have been all over the map compared to recent months, which makes writing for blogs and predictions quite difficult. With a number of prominent authors gone on vacation, there isn't much buzz circulating about any bait, which leaves a lot of the cateogories this month wide open.

So in just looking at this months SAG nominations, hopefully you'll see why this month has no clear frontrunner in any category.

-OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE-

Cher in Seven Days to the Weekend

Abbie Cornish in Mario Puzo's: The Family

Brenda Fricker in The Beauty Queen Of Leenane

Vanessa Redgrave in The Thirteenth Tale

Dominique Swain in Broken Pieces

Tilda Swinton in The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

As far as past contests go, this is probably the most competitive this category has been for quite some time seeing as there are so many fantastical baited actress' in this category. Supporting Actress is actual quite consistent this month (save for Andrews/Fricker who both weren't on both the GG and SAG shortlist), I think there are still a few names you can rule out of winning at the awards shows. Dominique is unfortunately featured in the Joseph Gordon-Levitt show and will probably make the end 5, but will probably not rise to the top. Cornish is featured out of a cast of a ton of talented actors and will probably be overshadowed by bigger names in the category. Fricker will have the toughest time out of the 6 nominated to make it to the Oscars because she was left off the GG's shortlist. Andrews/Redgrave will duke it out for the nomination with Redgrave winning seeing as she has a more buzzed about/praised bait. Swinton and Cher are the only two locks IMO and I think that Swinton will probably come out on top at all the awards ceremonies.

Will Win: Tilda Swinton in The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time (SAG, GG, and Oscar)

-OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE-

Robert Englund in Springwood

James Franco in Judas Iscariot

John Malkovich in Secret Identity of The Heart

Armin Mueller-Stahl in The Hussein Room

Al Pacino in Mario Puzo's: The Family

Alex Pettyfer in Mario Puzo's: The Family

Much like the previous category, only 2 names differ between the two lists (Malkovich/Davies) and it will difficult for both of them to reach the Oscars this month, but I'm giving the edge to Malkovich. Also like the previous category is that The Family is represented highly once again, but I think just like in the last case, this will hurt the nominees and probably split the vote, unless Pacino rises to the top. ALSO just like the previous category is that it is a two horse race, this time between Mueller-Stahl and Franco. I think in the end the terriorst will win over Jesus though.

Will Win: Armin Mueller-Stahl in The Hussein Room (SAG, Oscar)

James Franco in Judas Iscariot (GG)

-OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE-

Laura Linney in Don't Ask, Don't Tell

Charlize Theron in I Want To Have Your Babies

Naomi Watts in Death Inside Her

Rachel Weisz in Condemnation

Kate Winslet in The Last Night

Best Actress is more of a wide open race then the past few months with no clear frontrunner(s) at all. While, Linney, Theron, and Watts all scored both SAG and GG nominations for their performances, Weisz came out of nowhere and scored one, while Winslet succeds here for The Last Night and not the more acclaimed performance in The Thirteenth Tale whereas she succeded for The Thirteeth Tale at the Golden Globes. I besides Weisz and Winslet, I think Linney is the farthest shot from winning simply because no one has been talking about her bait what so ever. Theron has a baity role, but I think in the end Watts will rise on top because her bait has the most buzz out of all the other nominees. However, I think it will be a shock when Theron ends up walking up to the podium at the Oscars.

Will Win: Naomi Watts in Death Inside Her (SAG and GG)

Charlize Theron in I Want to Have Your Babies (Oscar)

-OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE-

Casey Affleck in Only the Weak Survive

Jeremy Davies in Judas Iscariot

Michael Gambon in Mario Puzo's: The Family

Joseph Gorden Levitt in Broken Pieces

Mads Mikkelsen in The Secret Identity of the Heart

Like many of the other categories, only one name was did not show up on the Globes shortlist and here it was Affleck who was deserving of a nomination in both precursors. I think this will be a situation where the vote will split with the precursors but end up going with the SAG's. I'm predicting a Judas sweep at the Globes and Davies will be included, however, I think the SAG's will go with Gorden Levitt.

Will Win: Joseph Gorden Levitt in Broken Pieces (SAG and Oscar)

Jeremy Davies in Judas Iscariot (GG)

-OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY THE CAST OF A MOTION PICTURE-

Broken Pieces

A Call For Blood

The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Mario Puzo's: The Family

The Secret Identity of the Heart

In this case, I'm going to predict Best Picture at the same time I predicting Cast of a Motion Picture which are kind of unrelated, but at the same time, not unrelated at all. I think in this case, what will win Best Picture at the Oscars isn't even nominated here, but I think what will win Cast of a Motion Picture is quite evident.

Will Win: Mario Puzo's: The Family (Screen Actors Guild- Ensemble)

Judas Iscariot (Golden Globe- Best Picture Drama)

The Hussein Room (Academy Awards- Best Picture)

March Igloo Winners!

Note: I've decided that I will no longer announce nominees, just winners and runners up.

Best Picture

**Judas Iscariot**

Runner Up: The Hussein Room

Best Director

**Milos Forman, Judas Iscariot**

Runner Up: Stephen Frears, The Family

Best Actor

**Jeremey Davies, Judas Iscariot**

Runner Up: Owen Kline, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Best Actress

**Rachel McAdams, Springwood**

Runner Up: Marcia Gay Harden, Medea

Best Supporting Actor

**Armin Mueller-Stahl, The Hussein Room**

Runner Up: James Francos, Judas Iscariot

Best Supporting Actress

**Cher, Seven Days to Weekend**

Runner Up: Tilda Swinton, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Best Original Screenplay

**Springwood**

Runner Up: Death Inside Her

Best Adapted Screenplay

**The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time**

Runner Up: Medea

The Andrews Author Award

**Brian (AZ)**

Runner Up: Evan (NY)

Best Ensemble

**The Hussein Room**

Runner Up: The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Best Performance of the Month

**Cher, Seven Days to Weekend**

The Dreamer Award

**Marcia Gay Harden, Medea**

The I! Excellence Award

**The Hussein Room**

The Sunshine Bait

**The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time**

The I! Hall of Fame Inductee is..

James Somerton

who is the most innovative author on the site and makes anything he touches better. He wrote 3 great baits this month that will live forever along with his other classics. Congratulations James!

Spring Break & the March Oscars

NOTE: With Spring Break being this week, at least for me, there will be a lot of updates on the blog during the next few days so always stay tuned.

This months Oscars may possibly be some of the most competitive yet because of the number of strong baits duking it out to be in this months top 5. Although, I'm going to say right up front, this will be the most unpredictable Oscars yet.

Why? Because with everyone being away on Spring Break (or so I guess) there has been the possible littlest turnout EVER for the nomination ballots at the Golden Globes, National Board of Review, and the Screen Actors Guild awards. Particularly the Golden Globes, where only 3 ballots have been turned in. I for one, believe that the GG's are the best precursor to predict Oscar wins, but rest assured that this month there will be a vast difference.

This is because the nominations will likely be all over the place seeing as there are only 3 ballots which will be extremely different. Also, at least for me, this month it was more about picking the baits that were the lesser of 2 evils. This month was really weak IMO and will probably go down in history as one of the weakest as well. Many baits are just okay which in a weak month leads them to "outstanding" reviews.

Just look at all the big 8's that have been posted on the fourm, there is almost no bait that is on every list. It's because of this that many baits, will likely be forgotten in the Best Picture race this month. The Musical/Comedy category is probably the weakest since September of '07 (no offense to any winners) with no really strong baits coming out in that genre, making me regret not sending another musical or comedy in this month.

Back to the Spring Break issue, there are so many people not active on the forums/blogs, that no one is really predicting anything this month. Chris' normal Big 8/Technical Awards hasn't been announced this month, and Pat's blog has been dead since January (anybody know where he is?). Douglas' blog is blooming however, but I hesitate trusting it too much seeing as he hasn't won BOTM yet (I still love the blog Douglas, keep the great stuff going. I check it daily!).

I don't know if this is just because of Spring Break or what, but I hope this isn't the downfall of the contest or anything. So everybody, come out and make nomination ballots for the precursors because I think it's starting to become a thing we take for granted.

Make sure and leave comments and check back for further predictions and posts!