To Predict or Not to Predict

This months precursors and Oscars have been all over the map compared to recent months, which makes writing for blogs and predictions quite difficult. With a number of prominent authors gone on vacation, there isn't much buzz circulating about any bait, which leaves a lot of the cateogories this month wide open.

So in just looking at this months SAG nominations, hopefully you'll see why this month has no clear frontrunner in any category.

-OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE-

Cher in Seven Days to the Weekend

Abbie Cornish in Mario Puzo's: The Family

Brenda Fricker in The Beauty Queen Of Leenane

Vanessa Redgrave in The Thirteenth Tale

Dominique Swain in Broken Pieces

Tilda Swinton in The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

As far as past contests go, this is probably the most competitive this category has been for quite some time seeing as there are so many fantastical baited actress' in this category. Supporting Actress is actual quite consistent this month (save for Andrews/Fricker who both weren't on both the GG and SAG shortlist), I think there are still a few names you can rule out of winning at the awards shows. Dominique is unfortunately featured in the Joseph Gordon-Levitt show and will probably make the end 5, but will probably not rise to the top. Cornish is featured out of a cast of a ton of talented actors and will probably be overshadowed by bigger names in the category. Fricker will have the toughest time out of the 6 nominated to make it to the Oscars because she was left off the GG's shortlist. Andrews/Redgrave will duke it out for the nomination with Redgrave winning seeing as she has a more buzzed about/praised bait. Swinton and Cher are the only two locks IMO and I think that Swinton will probably come out on top at all the awards ceremonies.

Will Win: Tilda Swinton in The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time (SAG, GG, and Oscar)

-OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE-

Robert Englund in Springwood

James Franco in Judas Iscariot

John Malkovich in Secret Identity of The Heart

Armin Mueller-Stahl in The Hussein Room

Al Pacino in Mario Puzo's: The Family

Alex Pettyfer in Mario Puzo's: The Family

Much like the previous category, only 2 names differ between the two lists (Malkovich/Davies) and it will difficult for both of them to reach the Oscars this month, but I'm giving the edge to Malkovich. Also like the previous category is that The Family is represented highly once again, but I think just like in the last case, this will hurt the nominees and probably split the vote, unless Pacino rises to the top. ALSO just like the previous category is that it is a two horse race, this time between Mueller-Stahl and Franco. I think in the end the terriorst will win over Jesus though.

Will Win: Armin Mueller-Stahl in The Hussein Room (SAG, Oscar)

James Franco in Judas Iscariot (GG)

-OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE-

Laura Linney in Don't Ask, Don't Tell

Charlize Theron in I Want To Have Your Babies

Naomi Watts in Death Inside Her

Rachel Weisz in Condemnation

Kate Winslet in The Last Night

Best Actress is more of a wide open race then the past few months with no clear frontrunner(s) at all. While, Linney, Theron, and Watts all scored both SAG and GG nominations for their performances, Weisz came out of nowhere and scored one, while Winslet succeds here for The Last Night and not the more acclaimed performance in The Thirteenth Tale whereas she succeded for The Thirteeth Tale at the Golden Globes. I besides Weisz and Winslet, I think Linney is the farthest shot from winning simply because no one has been talking about her bait what so ever. Theron has a baity role, but I think in the end Watts will rise on top because her bait has the most buzz out of all the other nominees. However, I think it will be a shock when Theron ends up walking up to the podium at the Oscars.

Will Win: Naomi Watts in Death Inside Her (SAG and GG)

Charlize Theron in I Want to Have Your Babies (Oscar)

-OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE-

Casey Affleck in Only the Weak Survive

Jeremy Davies in Judas Iscariot

Michael Gambon in Mario Puzo's: The Family

Joseph Gorden Levitt in Broken Pieces

Mads Mikkelsen in The Secret Identity of the Heart

Like many of the other categories, only one name was did not show up on the Globes shortlist and here it was Affleck who was deserving of a nomination in both precursors. I think this will be a situation where the vote will split with the precursors but end up going with the SAG's. I'm predicting a Judas sweep at the Globes and Davies will be included, however, I think the SAG's will go with Gorden Levitt.

Will Win: Joseph Gorden Levitt in Broken Pieces (SAG and Oscar)

Jeremy Davies in Judas Iscariot (GG)

-OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY THE CAST OF A MOTION PICTURE-

Broken Pieces

A Call For Blood

The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Mario Puzo's: The Family

The Secret Identity of the Heart

In this case, I'm going to predict Best Picture at the same time I predicting Cast of a Motion Picture which are kind of unrelated, but at the same time, not unrelated at all. I think in this case, what will win Best Picture at the Oscars isn't even nominated here, but I think what will win Cast of a Motion Picture is quite evident.

Will Win: Mario Puzo's: The Family (Screen Actors Guild- Ensemble)

Judas Iscariot (Golden Globe- Best Picture Drama)

The Hussein Room (Academy Awards- Best Picture)