1. Rosemary Harris, The Violinist- My predicted winner of the category. Winning the SAG really boosted her to frontrunner status, and even though she didn't make the NBR Top 3, I think she'll pull out the only acting win for the likely Best Picture winner.
2. Angela Bassett, Tuskegee- Harris, barely beats out Angela for the Oscar. Bassett gave a first-rate performance that will likely be ignored for the veteran. A win is more likely on her part if her costar Luke does not win his category. Still, I think she'll have to wait a while to get her Oscar.
3. Sophie Okonedo, After the Fall- If you look at the stats, she's the most likely candidate to win, but something tells me that she will be overlooked come the end of the month. Her problem: Two A-list costars who are both neck and neck with their competitors.
4. Shohreh Aghdashloo, In the Land of Eden- A bit more of a risk to put money on her, but she is the next in line as far as buzz is considered. A powerful role, in an accalimed bait, and a weak month, usually equals a nomination.
5. Joan Cusack, Baked Alaska- The biggest change of not getting nominated lies here with Joan. I pick her to round out the 5 because I think this is what most people will do on their ballots "Oh, I need a fifth nominee, I'll put her in..." The NBR helped her out, but doesn't guarentee a spot for her at all.
Also in the Running:
6. Sienna Miller, The Violinist- She made the SAG cut, and Cusack didn't. The fact that The Violinist is the front-runner helps, but the fact that her co-star is in the same category doesnt.
Stay tuned for more detailed predictions!
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