As May has now come to a close, the winners of the Oscars have yet to be announced. Although I already posted my complete predictions, I didn't quite look at any of the nominees in depth. So with that I look at the coveted Best Picture nominees and decide how I think the Top 5 places will go...
In a sub-par month for baits (IMO) the Best Picture nominees seem a bit unnormal for "Bait" standards, we have a category full of really not that baity subjects.
Beeville, TX really came out of nowhere as a BP nominee this month and took everyone by surprise. Although it does have a GG M/C BP under it's belt it hasn't really had to much attention. Some question the Alexander Payne director choice (myself amoung them) and it debuted to mixed reviews. It has a warm comedy feel to it, but I don't really see it as baity.
Chances: 100:1
Dominion a bait written by the always popular Tony seems to have the most buzz surrounding it even though it is a M. Night bait. Traditionally, his films aren't that baity and they don't usually fair well with the Oscars (both real and fake). On the plus side it is written by Tony whom many seem to think is WAY overdue for his BP title and many could vote for him simply because he is a very consistent author. Chances : 5:2
The Guy Who Owned the Store: A very strong bait that I could easily see taking the crown in a month like this, but there isn't really any buzz. It has mostly postive reviews behind it, but hardly any awards to back it up. It is Bryce's 2nd incredible month in a row so the votes may want to give him the award, the question is do the want to give Bryce a BP before other more sucessful authors? Chances: 50: 1
Rivalry at 6 PM: Debuted with overwhelming buzz from the Festival and since then just took off. No one is really talking about it anymore, but it recieved a stunning 10 nominations for relatively new author Patrick D. The fatal question looms in the air, do they want to give a really new author the top award? Chances: 15:1
Rush: This bait really has the strongest recent buzz coming into the awards, but it faces the same problems that Rivalry does, is a "new" author going to win the top award. My guess is probably not, but it does have strong critical support. Chances: 10:1
Here is how I think the ranking will go...
1. Dominion- even though it is unbaity, Tony is the most expierenced of the authors and it's a solid bait.
2. Rush- A strong debut and the buzz to do with it.
3. Rivalry at 6 PM- Although I personally would give it the #1 slot, the buzz may have been a little too much.
4. The Guy Who Owned the Store- A strong bait and Bryce has really come into his own
5. Beeville, TX- A nice warm comedy like this is lucky to get a BP nomination with the little buzz it had going in.
Thoughts?
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4 comments:
I'm saying Rush right now, but Dominion is a really close second. And don't be shocked if Rivalry at 6 PM upsets.
I'm saying Rush as well. But Dominion is right behind. I'll be fine with either winning.
Also, Rush wasn't a debut bait. The author wrote River City Blue as well.
Actually Ross wrote a couple of things before River City Blue. But anyways, I think Rivalry at 6 PM will win, but it so close between all three of these baits its hard to tell.
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