Predicting the SAG's

For the past few months the SAG's have been a great way to predict what bait will win BOTM. Rivalry at 6 PM won Best Ensemble and so did Bootleg, both going on to win Best Picture. Does this mean that one of the 5 baits nominated for Best Ensemble will go on to win the big prize?


Best Ensemble
Oil
The Informer
Glitz
Mom is 80
Gray Daze

Not to surprised at the nominees, and if the past 2 winners of this award tell us something, one of these will be crowned Best Picture. With 4 of the 5 nominated baits being written by previous BOTM winners, this could be the first month that has an author winning their 2nd Best Picture award. Anyway, this is a tough category to predict this month and although Gray Daze had a great amount of success at the festival, I doubt that it will win this award. Mom is 80 has a big cast full of great actors which got it this nomination, which is it's reward. Glitz doesn't quite have the buzz, but a great cult following which could lead to a win. That leaves Oil and The Informer and I would be The Informer has the upper hand in the battle.

Prediction: The Informer

Best Actor
Topher Grace for Gray Daze
Philip Seymour Hoffman for Captain Fantastic
Patrick Wilson for The 27th Victim
Chris Cooper for Bloodshed
Javier Bardem for The Informer

This is the most probable lineup for Best Actor this month at the Oscars, so I'm gonna bet the actor that wins this will go on to win Best Actor. I don't think Chris or Patrick stand a chance against the other powerhouse performances in the category and will likely be lost in the shuffle. Also while Phillip is great casting on Pat's part, the bait is liked well enough to win this award. I'm gonna bet Topher Grace will win, but Javier could take it.

Prediction: Topher Grace for Gray Daze

Best Actress
Bea Arthur for Mom is 80
Emma Thompson for Lucky Clover
Glenn Close for The Last Page
Rene Russo for The End of the Alphabet
Sanaa Lathan for Running Miles

Call me biased, but I am surprised that Ellen DeGeneres didn't get in this category although it is a very solid lineup. I don't think Rene Russo will win, I just don't see/hear any buzz for her. I also don't think Sanna Lathan has the staying power to win, but it still is a possibility same with Emma Thompson. Bea Arthur has the buzz and a powerhouse role, but not as widely praised as Close.

Prediction: Glenn Close for The Last Page

Best Supporting Actor
Alec Baldwin for Mom is 80
Edward James Olmos for The Informer
Christopher Plummer for Oil
Denzel Washington for Running Miles
Dennis Quaid for Bloodshed

Kind of surprised that Alec was nominated, because I didn't know people liked his performance. Any way, I don't think Alec, Dennis, or Denzel will win simply because of the lack of buzz. Edward James Olmos could nab the win, but I thinking that Christopher will take it.

Prediction: Christopher Plummer for Oil

Best Supporting Actress
Juliette Lewis for Clockwork
Kathleen Turner for Glitz
Vanessa Redgrave for Oil
Alicja Bachleda-Curus for Behind the Show
Frances McDormand for Mom is 80

This is really a hard category, but I think is is McDormand's to lose.

Prediction: Frances McDormand for Mom is 80