Oscar Nominations Analysis/Predictions

The noms are out! I will now take some time to give my predictions and opinion on the nominations. I'll start with the creativity awards.

Best Plot / Synopsis

Glitz
Gray Daze
Lucky Clover
Mom is 80
Oil
One Thousand Paper Cranes

Mostly what I expected, but I didn't expect to see One Thousand Paper Cranes on there since it had a lack of exposure. Anyways, I believe it boils down to Gray Daze, Lucky Clover and Oil. Of those choices, I would say Lucky Clover gets my vote, with Gray Daze a close second. Mom is 80 is a possible upset.

Predicted: Lucky Clover
Runner-Up: Gray Daze
Possible Upset: Mom is 80

Best Awards Campaign

Bloodshed
The End of the Alphabet
Gray Daze
The Informer
Song and Dance Man
Tuesdays with Morrie

I will discount my bait to not be biased. Of those choices, I think The Informer and The End of the Alphabet. My vote goes to the former. I think Gray Daze is the possible upset.

Predicted: The Informer
Runner-Up: The End of the Alphabet
Possible Upset: Gray Daze

Best Online Awards Campaign

Behind the Show
Bloodshed
Gray Daze
Lucky Clover
Running Miles

Pretty much these were the only baits that had campaigns, so its no suprise for who was nominated. By far, Gray Daze had the best posters and consistency of posting. It's only competition is Behind the Show and Lucky Clover.

Predicted: Gray Daze
Runner-Up: Behind the Show
Possible Upset: Lucky Clover

Best Title

Captain Fantastic
Dark Night of the Soul
Lucky Clover
Song and Dance Man
Standardized Test

No doubt about it. Captain Fantastic is just such a catchy title that it can't be ignored. Plus, it's got Pat behind it, and we all know that his baits always get some recognition. The others are all good nominees though.

Predicted winner: Captain Fantastic
Runner-up: Song and Dance Man
Possible Upset: Lucky Clover

Most Likely Bait to Become a Box-Office Hit

It's a Public Life
Glitz
The Informer
Mom is 80
Oil

Hmmm. I betting Glitz cause it is the more commercial of the nominees. Plus, it's got Brian behind it.

Predicted winner: Glitz
Runner-up: It's A Public Life
Possible Upset: Mom Is 80

Most Likely Bait to Become a Cult Film

The 27th Victim
Clockwork
Dark Night of the Soul
Mindset
One Thousand Paper Cranes

So tough to choose. My bet is either Dark Night of the Soul or Clockwork. I bet the former will win.

Predicted winner: Dark Night of the Soul
Runner-up: Clockwork
Possible Upset: The 27th Victim

Most Original Bait

8
How Things Change
It's a Public Life
The Last Page
Standardized Test

This is always a hard category to choose. I'm going to go with How Things Change, with The Last Page as a runner-up.

Predicted winner: How Things Change
Runner-up: The Last Page
Possible Upset: Standardized Text

Most Original Character

Matthew Hunter, played by Patrick Wilson, in The 27th Victim
Monique, played by Regina King, in Behind the Show
Scott Paulson, played by Shia LaBeouf, in Clockwork
Gilbert Henderson, played by James Caan, in Elm Falls
Alvin Stevens, played by Topher Grace, in Gray Daze
Julianne Wolf-Stevens, played by Glenn Close, in The Last Page

I have to give this to Gray Daze, since I love the actor/character combination. They're all good nominees though.

Predicted: Gray Daze
Runner-up: The Last Page
Possible Upset: The 27th Victim

Best Cast

The End of the Alphabet
Cooking Class
The Informer
The Last Page
Lucky Clover
Mom is 80

Mostly what I expected. My vote goes to The Informer, but Lucky Clover is a close second.

Predicted: The Informer
Runner-up: Lucky Clover
Possible Upset: Mom is 80

Best Casting Choice

Kevin Spacey as George in Behind the Show
Philip Seymour Hoffman as Sir Elton John in Captain Fantastic
Cameron Bright as Billy Maple in How Things Change
Bea Arthur as Natalie in Mom is 80
Sanaa Lathan as Wilma Rudolph in Running Miles
Andy Griffith as Morrie Schwartz in Tuesdays with Morrie

I will discount my nom to be fair. Captain Fantastic is poised to win this in a landslide, since it is one of the two real life people on the list. Running Miles is its only competition.

Predicted: Captain Fantastic
Runner-up: Running Miles
Possible Upset: Mom is 80

Best Crew

Bloodshed
The End of the Alphabet
Flint
Lucky Clover
Oil
Pillow/Menu

Tough call. I'll give it to Lucky Clover above Oil since that latter's crew is a pretty typical choice.

Predicted: Lucky Clover
Runner-up: Oil
Possible upset: The End of the Alphabet

Best Tagline

"Captain Fantastic, raised and regimented. Hardly a hero"
Captain Fantastic

"Death is more universal than life; everyone dies but not everyone lives"
The End of the Alphabet

"Eye-Catching Glamour. Unbeatable Style. And a Dab of Murder"
Glitz

"Sometimes, all it takes to bring a family back together is a little slice of Birthday cake"
Mom is 80

"Everyone Needs It… Few Have It... And these two men will stop at nothing to get it"
Oil

I love most of these taglines, but I absolutely love the one for Mom is 80. That's my predicted winner by far.

Predicted winner: Mom is 80
Runner-up: Oil
Possible Upset: Glitz

Funniest Bait

Glitz
It's a Public Life
Mom is 80
Song and Dance Man
Standardized Test

No doubt about it. Mom is 80 gets the vote.

Predicted: Mom is 80
Runner-up: It's a Public Life
Possible upset: Standardized Text

Shameless Oscar Vehicles

8
The Beast Within You
Bloodshed
Cooking Class
Tuesdays with Morrie

No comment

Best Poster Design

Cooking Class
Dark Night of the Soul
Glitz
Lucky Clover
Oil

Sergio has become the new king of posters (sorry James). His almost look like real posters! He will win this by a landslide.

Predicted: Lucky Clover
Ruuner-up: Oil
Possible Upset: Glitz

Best Author of the Month
Special Achievement on Writing and Creativity

Christopher M. (The End of the Alphabet)
Josh P. (Gray Daze)
D.W. Dillon (The Informer)
Sergio (Lucky Clover)
James Somerton (Oil)

It's between Sergio and Josh P. I will give it too the latter cause I think Lucky Clover is poised for a best picture win and usually someone else wins the author award.

Predicted: Josh P.
Runner-up: Sergio
Possible Upset: D.W. Dillon

::: THE BIG 8 AWARDS :::

Best Picture

Bloodshed
The End of the Alphabet
Gray Daze
The Informer
Lucky Clover
Oil

I just suprised we have six nominees. Anyways, I have a feeling Lucky Clover will take the award so my vote goes to it. Gray Daze would be my vote, but it is more of a showcase for its director and especially its actor. The Informer is a possibility.

Predicted: Lucky Clover
Runner-up: Gray Daze
Possible upset: The Informer

Best Director

Tim Burton, Glitz
Jonathan Demme, Bloodshed
James Mangold, The 27th Victim
Robert Redford, Gray Daze
Jim Sheridan, Lucky Clover
Steven Soderbergh, Oil

Lose one, win another. Since I believe Clover will win best picture, I will give the award to Gray Daze since I think Redford is a great director and its a great choice for the film.

Predicted: Gray Daze
Runner-up: Lucky Clover
Possible Upset: The 27th Victim

Best Actor

Javier Bardem, The Informer
Chris Cooper, Bloodshed
Topher Grace, Gray Daze
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Captain Fantastic
Dennis Quaid, The End of the Alphabet

Topher Grace. Enough said.

Predicted: Gray Daze
Runner-up: Captain Fantastic
Possible Upset: The End of the Alphabet

Best Actress

Bea Arthur, Mom is 80
Glenn Close, The Last Page
Sanaa Lathan, Running Miles
Rene Russo, The End of the Alphabet
Emma Thompson, Lucky Clover

It's between Close and Thompson. I'll give it to the former since she's way overdue.

Predicted: The Last Page
Runner-up: Lucky Clover
Possible Upset: Any of the others (they're all good choices)

Best Supporting Actor

Edward James Olmos, The Informer
Liam Neeson, Lucky Clover
Christopher Plummer, Oil
Dennis Quaid, Bloodshed
Denzel Washington, Running Miles

I bet Plummer will take this since he swept the precursors, but don't be suprised to see Olmos sneak a win.

Predicted: Oil
Runner-up: The Informer
Possible Upset: Lucky Clover

Best Supporting Actress

Alicja Bachleda-Curus, Behind the Show
Thora Birch, Bloodshed
Juliette Lewis, Clockwork
Vanessa Redgrave, Oil
Emmy Rossum, Gray Daze
Kathleen Turner, Glitz

Always a hard category to judge and this is no exception. I'll give it to Clockwork only because it has some good support.

Predicted: Clockwork
Runner-up: Oil
Possible upset: Bloodshed or Gray Daze

Best Original Screenplay

Gray Daze
Glitz
Lucky Clover
Mom is 80
Oil
Song and Dance Man

I would love to give this to Mom is 80, but it's pretty much between Lucky Clover and Gray Daze. I'm giving it to the former since the latter is a sure pick in several other categories.

Predicted: Lucky Clover
Runner-up: Gray Daze
Possible upset: Mom is 80

Best Adapted Screenplay

The End of the Alphabet
David Copperfield: I Am Dead
Flint
The Informer
Tuesdays with Morrie

You know what I will do. I have to say this was a weak month for adapted baits, so The Informer is likely to win by a long shot. The End of the Alphabet is its only competition.

Predicted: The Informer
Runner-up: The End of the Alphabet
Possible upset: Flint

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Ok, give any comments you want. I'm always happy to hear what you think. Oh, and good luck to everyone on June 30.