Analyzing and Predicting the Globes

Well, I'm not to surprised at the nominees although most of the authors are I feel that we got it pretty right. Here are my predictions and an analysis afterward...

Best Picture Drama


Bloodshed


The Informer


The 27th Victim


Lucky Clover


Oil


My main surprise in this category would have to be Lucky Clover because although it was hyped by a few I didn't think it would be enough to score a nomination. I doubt it will win simply because although the buzz is there not to many have jumped on the band wagon. The 27th Victim probably won't take it because it is not that hyped and just ok reviews. Although Bloodshed is a strong contender I don't think it will take the award because it isn't Daniel's best work and lack of buzz. That leaves The Informer and Oil left and while Oil is the likely candidate because of the huge showing of nominations I don't think that many people will say " You know I want to give it Best Picture" however the same can be said for The Informer. While many will say Oil has the edge because of the nominations factor my prediction is the latter because it is a soild bait that is a great read and pretty baity too.

Prediction: The Informer


Best Actor Drama


Topher Grace for Gray Daze


Chris Cooper for Bloodshed


Javier Bardem for The Informer


Patrick Wilson for The 27th Victim


George Clooney for Oil


No surprises here pretty much what I expected, but I don't think there are many contenders in the category. Chris Cooper is the dark horse in the race because no one is really saying this is outstanding casting or love his role he may get a couple of votes, but not enough to win. Patrick Wilson has a great role, but the buzz train stopped at Grace Station. While Oil has a huge amount of buzz, Clooney doesn't so I wouldn't look to him for the win. That leaves Grace and Bardem and Grace is miles ahead of Bardem in terms of buzz so I bet he'll take it by a landslide.

Prediction: Topher Grace for Gray Daze


Best Actress Drama


Sanaa Lathan for Running Miles


Emma Thompson for Lucky Clover


Glenn Close for The Last Page


Rene Russo for The End of the Alphabet


Samantha Morton for Flint

Kind of surprised that Morton made the cut as well as Russo other than that it was expected. I doubt that Russo or Morton will win because of the lack of buzz. Lathan is a possiblity, but I don't think there will be enough votes. Emma Thompson could win, but like Russo and Morton there is not buzz. So I'm gonna go with Close for the win.

Prediction: Glenn Close for The Last Page



Best Picture Comedy/Musical

Behind the Show

Captain Fantastic

Glitz

It's A Public Life

Mom is 80

Song And Dance Man

One of the trickiest ones to predict, but I doubt that the Song and Dance Man or Mom is 80 will take home the Globe. Captain Fantastic doesn't have enough support along with It's A Public Life. That leaves Behind the Show and Glitz and I'm gonna guess that Glitz doesn't have the support to win so I'm going with Behind the Show.

Prediction: Behind the Show


Best Actor Comedy/Musical

Kevin Spacey for Behind the Show

Philip Seymour Hoffman for Captain Fantastic

Jim Carrey for Glitz

Nicolas Cage for Song and Dance Man

Steve Carrell for Standardized Text

No surprises here and I think Nicolas Cage is the dark horse and has no chance of winning. Jim Carrey and Steve Careell don't have the buzz to pull off a win. Leaving P.S.H and K.S and I think that Kevin Spacey will take it with the best role/casting in the group.

Prediction: Kevin Spacey for Behind the Show


Best Actress Comedy/Musical

Regina King for Behind the Show

Renee Zellweger for Glitz

Ellen DeGeneres for It's A Public Life

Bea Arthur for Mom is 80

Toni Collette for Song and Dance Man

I doubt that Toni Collette will take home the gold as well as Regina King. Bea has been praised and critized, but I wouldn't be surprised if she wins. Renee has the buzz, but a lot of people hated the bait. That leaves Ellen and while everyone loves Ellen a lot of people didn't like the bait. I'm betting Renee will win.

Prediction: Renee Zellweger for Glitz


Best Supporting Actor

Edward James Olmos for The Informer

Denzel Washington for Running Miles

Christopher Plummer for Oil

Liam Neeson for Lucky Clover

Alec Baldwin for Mom is 80

Dennis Quaid for Bloodshed

Not thinking that Liam, Alec, Dennis, or Denzel will win so don't count on them. I think it comes down to Edward and Christopher and give Christopher the edge because of the nomination count.

Prediction: Christopher Plummer for Oil


Best Supporting Actress

Thora Birch for Bloodshed

Alicja Bachleda-Curus for Behind the Show

Vanessa Redgrave for Oil

Kathleen Turner for Glitz

Juliette Lewis for Clockwork

Frances McDormand for Mom is 80


Umm I don't know about this category I'll get back on it.


Best Director

Robert Redford for Gray Daze

Abel Ferra for The Informer

Steven Soderbergh for Oil

Jim Sheridan for Lucky Clover

James Mangold for The 27th Victim

Todd Field for Tuesdays with Morrie

I'm going to bet that it comes down to Gray Daze, The Informer and Oil in this category. I doubt The Informer will win, but it is possible if it wins Best Picture. Oil is in the race because of the nomination count, but the safe bet is Robert Redford for Gray Daze.

Prediction: Robert Redford for Gray Daze





Best Screenplay

Andrew Kevin Walker for The 27th Victim

Dan Futterman and Michael Arndt for Gray Daze

Jimmy Santiago Baca for The Informer

Emma Thompson for Lucky Clover

Stephen Gaghan for Oil

Charlie Kaufman for Glitz



I doubt that Glitz or Oil are in the ballpark of winning this award, but never say never. The Informer will likely be overshadowed because of the other nominees and The 27th Victim is unlikely. Leaving Gray Daze and Lucky Clover I give the edge to Lucky Clover because I don't think it will win any other awards.



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