Michael's View: The Oscars

I completely agree with Z, easily the easiest Oscars to predict thus far in the contest. The couple of things I was surprised at were the following...

I actually picked up an Oscar for It's A Public Life. Was not expecting it because I always thought the baits would be a more cult thing. Yet, I came away with Box-Office Hit!

That more people thought that Lucky Clover wouldn't win. It had support from practically every past BOTM winner including #1 spots from many of them.

That Gray Daze came in 2nd place. It had virtually no love from the SAG's or GG's and yet it came in 2nd when many doubted it would even be nominated for Best Picture. No suprise that Oil came in second, but I really thought Oil and The Informer would tie for 2nd.

Other than that no big surprises! Good luck in July everyone and based on the early reviews at the festival it seems like it will be one of the best and toughest months yet!

Reaction to June 2007 Awards/The Winners

As the July competition kicks off with the Bait Festival, we should look back on this month and see how everyone's hard work paid off. Let me just say this was one of the easiest months to predict for. My only surprises came from the Adapted Screenplay winner and a couple of creativity awards. Though all the Big 8 awards were predicted far and wide, I was surprised to see The End of the Alphabet snag the screenplay award from The Informer. Also, I did not expect Bloodshed to take the press section award. I thought one of the other baits had a better chance. Other than that, the only other surprise was the Most Original Bait winner. It wasn't that it was a bad choice, but I just didn't expect it to win. Congrats to all the winners though. Here are the winners for anyone who haven't seen it yet:

TOP 15 BAITS OF JUNE

1. Lucky Clover
2. Gray Daze / Oil
3. The Informer
4. The End of the Alphabet
5. Bloodshed
6. Mom is 80
7. Glitz
8. The 27th Victim / Standardized Test
9. Behind the Show
10. Tuesdays with Morrie
11. Captain Fantastic
12. It's a Public Life
13. Song and Dance Man
14. The Last Page
15. Running Miles

Honorary Mentions: One Thousand Paper Cranes & Flint

::: CREATIVITY AWARDS :::

Best Plot / Synopsis

Lucky Clover

Best Awards Campaign

Bloodshed

Best Online Awards Campaign

Gray Daze

Best Title

Captain Fantastic

Most Likely Bait to Become a Box-Office Hit

It's a Public Life

Most Likely Bait to Become a Cult Film

Dark Night of the Soul

Most Original Bait

Standardized Test

Most Original Character

Alvin Stevens, played by Topher Grace, in Gray Daze

Best Cast

The Informer

Best Casting Choice

Philip Seymour Hoffman as Sir Elton John in Captain Fantastic

Best Crew

Oil

Best Tagline

"Sometimes, all it takes to bring a family back together is a little slice of Birthday cake"
Mom is 80

Funniest Bait

Mom is 80

Shameless Oscar Vehicles

8
The Beast Within You
Bloodshed
Cooking Class
Tuesdays with Morrie

Best Poster Design

Lucky Clover

Best Author of the Month
Special Achievement on Writing and Creativity

Sergio (Lucky Clover)

::: THE BIG 8 AWARDS :::

Best Picture

Lucky Clover

Best Director

Robert Redford, Gray Daze

Best Actor

Topher Grace, Gray Daze

Best Actress

Glenn Close, The Last Page

Best Supporting Actor

Christopher Plummer, Oil

Best Supporting Actress

Juliette Lewis, Clockwork

Best Original Screenplay

Lucky Clover

Best Adapted Screenplay

The End of the Alphabet

The Bait Festival Is Approaching

For those of you following the thread, I'm sure you are aware of the Bait Festival that is up. I'm also sure you're aware that this is the last day to send your baits to the Festival. For anyone who has not yet, hurry. Michael will probably put up something saying when he will close the bait, but I don't know when.

1st Half of 2007 Awards

Harry has just started a new thing that actually sounds kind of cool. We are voting for our favorite baits that were released between January and June. If you wish to vote, e-mail Harry on the address listed in the thread for the awards and send him your top 10 baits of the first half and ten honorable mentions. I have already sent mine and so far Alex is the only other one to do so.

Your votes count. Get to it folks!

We will not except First Looks for a while

Since we are both busy polishing our baits for July, we will not accept any more baits for reviews for a short while. We will finish the last few First Looks we had planned but that will be it for now. We will start up reviewing when the next contest begins (most likely in an article where we review the July baits). Just to inform you.

First Looks Now Up

There are now several First Looks up on our sister site. Check them out on the link below:

http://thezoneofzgamer.blogspot.com/

We currently have one for Daniel's bait, Pat's bait and Bryce's bait with some more to come.

Update On First Looks

We will be showing First Look articles for several baits very soon. We are just in the process of finishing reading them. They will be up soon on our sister site (and my personal blog) The Zone of Zgamer. You can check what it looks like at http://thezoneofzgamer.blogspot.com/

More info to come soon to this blog and the bait an oscar forum back at the home site.

Oscar Nominations Analysis/Predictions

The noms are out! I will now take some time to give my predictions and opinion on the nominations. I'll start with the creativity awards.

Best Plot / Synopsis

Glitz
Gray Daze
Lucky Clover
Mom is 80
Oil
One Thousand Paper Cranes

Mostly what I expected, but I didn't expect to see One Thousand Paper Cranes on there since it had a lack of exposure. Anyways, I believe it boils down to Gray Daze, Lucky Clover and Oil. Of those choices, I would say Lucky Clover gets my vote, with Gray Daze a close second. Mom is 80 is a possible upset.

Predicted: Lucky Clover
Runner-Up: Gray Daze
Possible Upset: Mom is 80

Best Awards Campaign

Bloodshed
The End of the Alphabet
Gray Daze
The Informer
Song and Dance Man
Tuesdays with Morrie

I will discount my bait to not be biased. Of those choices, I think The Informer and The End of the Alphabet. My vote goes to the former. I think Gray Daze is the possible upset.

Predicted: The Informer
Runner-Up: The End of the Alphabet
Possible Upset: Gray Daze

Best Online Awards Campaign

Behind the Show
Bloodshed
Gray Daze
Lucky Clover
Running Miles

Pretty much these were the only baits that had campaigns, so its no suprise for who was nominated. By far, Gray Daze had the best posters and consistency of posting. It's only competition is Behind the Show and Lucky Clover.

Predicted: Gray Daze
Runner-Up: Behind the Show
Possible Upset: Lucky Clover

Best Title

Captain Fantastic
Dark Night of the Soul
Lucky Clover
Song and Dance Man
Standardized Test

No doubt about it. Captain Fantastic is just such a catchy title that it can't be ignored. Plus, it's got Pat behind it, and we all know that his baits always get some recognition. The others are all good nominees though.

Predicted winner: Captain Fantastic
Runner-up: Song and Dance Man
Possible Upset: Lucky Clover

Most Likely Bait to Become a Box-Office Hit

It's a Public Life
Glitz
The Informer
Mom is 80
Oil

Hmmm. I betting Glitz cause it is the more commercial of the nominees. Plus, it's got Brian behind it.

Predicted winner: Glitz
Runner-up: It's A Public Life
Possible Upset: Mom Is 80

Most Likely Bait to Become a Cult Film

The 27th Victim
Clockwork
Dark Night of the Soul
Mindset
One Thousand Paper Cranes

So tough to choose. My bet is either Dark Night of the Soul or Clockwork. I bet the former will win.

Predicted winner: Dark Night of the Soul
Runner-up: Clockwork
Possible Upset: The 27th Victim

Most Original Bait

8
How Things Change
It's a Public Life
The Last Page
Standardized Test

This is always a hard category to choose. I'm going to go with How Things Change, with The Last Page as a runner-up.

Predicted winner: How Things Change
Runner-up: The Last Page
Possible Upset: Standardized Text

Most Original Character

Matthew Hunter, played by Patrick Wilson, in The 27th Victim
Monique, played by Regina King, in Behind the Show
Scott Paulson, played by Shia LaBeouf, in Clockwork
Gilbert Henderson, played by James Caan, in Elm Falls
Alvin Stevens, played by Topher Grace, in Gray Daze
Julianne Wolf-Stevens, played by Glenn Close, in The Last Page

I have to give this to Gray Daze, since I love the actor/character combination. They're all good nominees though.

Predicted: Gray Daze
Runner-up: The Last Page
Possible Upset: The 27th Victim

Best Cast

The End of the Alphabet
Cooking Class
The Informer
The Last Page
Lucky Clover
Mom is 80

Mostly what I expected. My vote goes to The Informer, but Lucky Clover is a close second.

Predicted: The Informer
Runner-up: Lucky Clover
Possible Upset: Mom is 80

Best Casting Choice

Kevin Spacey as George in Behind the Show
Philip Seymour Hoffman as Sir Elton John in Captain Fantastic
Cameron Bright as Billy Maple in How Things Change
Bea Arthur as Natalie in Mom is 80
Sanaa Lathan as Wilma Rudolph in Running Miles
Andy Griffith as Morrie Schwartz in Tuesdays with Morrie

I will discount my nom to be fair. Captain Fantastic is poised to win this in a landslide, since it is one of the two real life people on the list. Running Miles is its only competition.

Predicted: Captain Fantastic
Runner-up: Running Miles
Possible Upset: Mom is 80

Best Crew

Bloodshed
The End of the Alphabet
Flint
Lucky Clover
Oil
Pillow/Menu

Tough call. I'll give it to Lucky Clover above Oil since that latter's crew is a pretty typical choice.

Predicted: Lucky Clover
Runner-up: Oil
Possible upset: The End of the Alphabet

Best Tagline

"Captain Fantastic, raised and regimented. Hardly a hero"
Captain Fantastic

"Death is more universal than life; everyone dies but not everyone lives"
The End of the Alphabet

"Eye-Catching Glamour. Unbeatable Style. And a Dab of Murder"
Glitz

"Sometimes, all it takes to bring a family back together is a little slice of Birthday cake"
Mom is 80

"Everyone Needs It… Few Have It... And these two men will stop at nothing to get it"
Oil

I love most of these taglines, but I absolutely love the one for Mom is 80. That's my predicted winner by far.

Predicted winner: Mom is 80
Runner-up: Oil
Possible Upset: Glitz

Funniest Bait

Glitz
It's a Public Life
Mom is 80
Song and Dance Man
Standardized Test

No doubt about it. Mom is 80 gets the vote.

Predicted: Mom is 80
Runner-up: It's a Public Life
Possible upset: Standardized Text

Shameless Oscar Vehicles

8
The Beast Within You
Bloodshed
Cooking Class
Tuesdays with Morrie

No comment

Best Poster Design

Cooking Class
Dark Night of the Soul
Glitz
Lucky Clover
Oil

Sergio has become the new king of posters (sorry James). His almost look like real posters! He will win this by a landslide.

Predicted: Lucky Clover
Ruuner-up: Oil
Possible Upset: Glitz

Best Author of the Month
Special Achievement on Writing and Creativity

Christopher M. (The End of the Alphabet)
Josh P. (Gray Daze)
D.W. Dillon (The Informer)
Sergio (Lucky Clover)
James Somerton (Oil)

It's between Sergio and Josh P. I will give it too the latter cause I think Lucky Clover is poised for a best picture win and usually someone else wins the author award.

Predicted: Josh P.
Runner-up: Sergio
Possible Upset: D.W. Dillon

::: THE BIG 8 AWARDS :::

Best Picture

Bloodshed
The End of the Alphabet
Gray Daze
The Informer
Lucky Clover
Oil

I just suprised we have six nominees. Anyways, I have a feeling Lucky Clover will take the award so my vote goes to it. Gray Daze would be my vote, but it is more of a showcase for its director and especially its actor. The Informer is a possibility.

Predicted: Lucky Clover
Runner-up: Gray Daze
Possible upset: The Informer

Best Director

Tim Burton, Glitz
Jonathan Demme, Bloodshed
James Mangold, The 27th Victim
Robert Redford, Gray Daze
Jim Sheridan, Lucky Clover
Steven Soderbergh, Oil

Lose one, win another. Since I believe Clover will win best picture, I will give the award to Gray Daze since I think Redford is a great director and its a great choice for the film.

Predicted: Gray Daze
Runner-up: Lucky Clover
Possible Upset: The 27th Victim

Best Actor

Javier Bardem, The Informer
Chris Cooper, Bloodshed
Topher Grace, Gray Daze
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Captain Fantastic
Dennis Quaid, The End of the Alphabet

Topher Grace. Enough said.

Predicted: Gray Daze
Runner-up: Captain Fantastic
Possible Upset: The End of the Alphabet

Best Actress

Bea Arthur, Mom is 80
Glenn Close, The Last Page
Sanaa Lathan, Running Miles
Rene Russo, The End of the Alphabet
Emma Thompson, Lucky Clover

It's between Close and Thompson. I'll give it to the former since she's way overdue.

Predicted: The Last Page
Runner-up: Lucky Clover
Possible Upset: Any of the others (they're all good choices)

Best Supporting Actor

Edward James Olmos, The Informer
Liam Neeson, Lucky Clover
Christopher Plummer, Oil
Dennis Quaid, Bloodshed
Denzel Washington, Running Miles

I bet Plummer will take this since he swept the precursors, but don't be suprised to see Olmos sneak a win.

Predicted: Oil
Runner-up: The Informer
Possible Upset: Lucky Clover

Best Supporting Actress

Alicja Bachleda-Curus, Behind the Show
Thora Birch, Bloodshed
Juliette Lewis, Clockwork
Vanessa Redgrave, Oil
Emmy Rossum, Gray Daze
Kathleen Turner, Glitz

Always a hard category to judge and this is no exception. I'll give it to Clockwork only because it has some good support.

Predicted: Clockwork
Runner-up: Oil
Possible upset: Bloodshed or Gray Daze

Best Original Screenplay

Gray Daze
Glitz
Lucky Clover
Mom is 80
Oil
Song and Dance Man

I would love to give this to Mom is 80, but it's pretty much between Lucky Clover and Gray Daze. I'm giving it to the former since the latter is a sure pick in several other categories.

Predicted: Lucky Clover
Runner-up: Gray Daze
Possible upset: Mom is 80

Best Adapted Screenplay

The End of the Alphabet
David Copperfield: I Am Dead
Flint
The Informer
Tuesdays with Morrie

You know what I will do. I have to say this was a weak month for adapted baits, so The Informer is likely to win by a long shot. The End of the Alphabet is its only competition.

Predicted: The Informer
Runner-up: The End of the Alphabet
Possible upset: Flint

---

Ok, give any comments you want. I'm always happy to hear what you think. Oh, and good luck to everyone on June 30.

The Golden Globe Winners

The Golden Globe Ceremony is up. Here are the winners of the June GG's.

Best Picture Drama-
Oil

Best Actor Drama-
Topher Grace for Gray Daze

Best Actress Drama-
Glenn Close for The Last Page

Best Picture Comedy/Musical-
Mom Is 80

Best Actor Comedy/Musical-
Kevin Spacey for Behind the show

Best Actress Comedy/Musical-
Bea Arthur for Mom Is 80

Best Supporting Actor-
Christopher Plummer for Oil

Best Supporting Actress-
Julliette Lewis for Clockwork

Best Director-
James Mangold for The 27th Victim

Best Screenplay-
Charlie Kaufman for Glitz

Feel free to discuss the results here or at the Bait An Oscar forum back at the site.

Predicting Best Picture

Ok this will go down as one of the hardest months to predict Best Picture because there isn't really buzz going to any bait. So here is the rundown on some of the baits...

The 27th Victim- It has scored nominations at the festival and the Globes, but I don't think this has a chance at winning Best Picture, although it could easily snag a nomination. Chances (at a nomination) 25:1

Bloodshed- A very strong bait, but I don't see this being the bait that will get Daniel crowned again. Chances: 100:1

Captain Fantastic-Wasn't as strong as everyone hoped, but it is Pat and he can easily score a nomination though I don't think it will happen this month. 150:1

The End of the Alphabet- Once upon a time this had buzz, but then it scored hardly any Golden Globe nominations, 1 SAG nomination, Ithink the doors are closing on it's chances for a Best Picture nomination, still it has a better chance than most. 30:1

Glitz- While it was adored by many, I doubt this will score a Best Picture nomination because most of the voters didn't like it. Chances: 125:1

Gray Daze: It did score an Ensemble nomination at the SAG's, but no Best Picture at the Globes and I doubt that will lead to a nomination, but we have seen it happen with Bootleg. Chances 85:1

The Informer: This will definately get a nomination. I don't think it will win, but I think it is the one thing you can be sure will make the cut. It has the Globe nomination and the SAG, I'm sure it will get it. 1:25

Lucky Clover- I'm betting it will make the cut, but watch out for a major upset. 10:1

Mom is 80- It could easily make the cut, especially if it wins Best Picture at the Globes. 20:1

Oil- I'm thinking this will make the cut too. But same as Bloodshed, I don't think this is the bait that will give James another win. 15:1

Standardized Test- Opened to mixed reviews and no nomination at the Globes, but this could be the Candidacy of June. 80:1

Feel free to discuss your predictions...

Predicting the SAG's

For the past few months the SAG's have been a great way to predict what bait will win BOTM. Rivalry at 6 PM won Best Ensemble and so did Bootleg, both going on to win Best Picture. Does this mean that one of the 5 baits nominated for Best Ensemble will go on to win the big prize?


Best Ensemble
Oil
The Informer
Glitz
Mom is 80
Gray Daze

Not to surprised at the nominees, and if the past 2 winners of this award tell us something, one of these will be crowned Best Picture. With 4 of the 5 nominated baits being written by previous BOTM winners, this could be the first month that has an author winning their 2nd Best Picture award. Anyway, this is a tough category to predict this month and although Gray Daze had a great amount of success at the festival, I doubt that it will win this award. Mom is 80 has a big cast full of great actors which got it this nomination, which is it's reward. Glitz doesn't quite have the buzz, but a great cult following which could lead to a win. That leaves Oil and The Informer and I would be The Informer has the upper hand in the battle.

Prediction: The Informer

Best Actor
Topher Grace for Gray Daze
Philip Seymour Hoffman for Captain Fantastic
Patrick Wilson for The 27th Victim
Chris Cooper for Bloodshed
Javier Bardem for The Informer

This is the most probable lineup for Best Actor this month at the Oscars, so I'm gonna bet the actor that wins this will go on to win Best Actor. I don't think Chris or Patrick stand a chance against the other powerhouse performances in the category and will likely be lost in the shuffle. Also while Phillip is great casting on Pat's part, the bait is liked well enough to win this award. I'm gonna bet Topher Grace will win, but Javier could take it.

Prediction: Topher Grace for Gray Daze

Best Actress
Bea Arthur for Mom is 80
Emma Thompson for Lucky Clover
Glenn Close for The Last Page
Rene Russo for The End of the Alphabet
Sanaa Lathan for Running Miles

Call me biased, but I am surprised that Ellen DeGeneres didn't get in this category although it is a very solid lineup. I don't think Rene Russo will win, I just don't see/hear any buzz for her. I also don't think Sanna Lathan has the staying power to win, but it still is a possibility same with Emma Thompson. Bea Arthur has the buzz and a powerhouse role, but not as widely praised as Close.

Prediction: Glenn Close for The Last Page

Best Supporting Actor
Alec Baldwin for Mom is 80
Edward James Olmos for The Informer
Christopher Plummer for Oil
Denzel Washington for Running Miles
Dennis Quaid for Bloodshed

Kind of surprised that Alec was nominated, because I didn't know people liked his performance. Any way, I don't think Alec, Dennis, or Denzel will win simply because of the lack of buzz. Edward James Olmos could nab the win, but I thinking that Christopher will take it.

Prediction: Christopher Plummer for Oil

Best Supporting Actress
Juliette Lewis for Clockwork
Kathleen Turner for Glitz
Vanessa Redgrave for Oil
Alicja Bachleda-Curus for Behind the Show
Frances McDormand for Mom is 80

This is really a hard category, but I think is is McDormand's to lose.

Prediction: Frances McDormand for Mom is 80

Fosse vs The World's Longest Suicide vs. Jackrabbit

Ok, time for a different vs. match. This time, I will pit three acclaimed biopics against each other. It's my Jackrabbit, D.W.'s The World's Longest Suicide and Alex's Fosse. Cast your votes here.

Zgamer's Thoughts On The Contest

This July will mark my first full year of baiting on the site (mind you I took no breaks during that time). I just thought I would reflect on how the contest has changed in my eyes.

Now, do I think that this contest has changed much? Yes and no. Yes because of the amount of depth this contest has gained and no because it hasn't changed the basic formula. I see more positive than negative though because we've had so many fun changes. The precursors, the festival, the tighter focus on quality. It's been so interesting. Probably the biggest (and best) change is the plot structure. While it is good not to tell everything about the stories, I'm glad we've gotten more elaborate with our plots. Some may complain that we are losing originality in this contest, but while that may be partially true, I see even more unique ideas come out than before. It also helps that people are improving on their grammar and spelling, thus not ruining the reading experience.

I also notice a huge change in my writing style. I use to follow the basic format of baiting that most did in the early months, but I noticed that near the end of last year, I have become a lot more elaborate on details. My press sections had more substance, my structure was more refined and I was adding more detail to support the story. Of course, I've also had to change the detail part since my baits were getting too long (which helped baits like Jackrabbit but hurt baits like The Jungle and The 38th Parallel). I have changed a lot since then, and I don't expect I will stop changing. The great thing about this contest is it really tests your writing skills and adaptability. If the audience is bored with your style, you need to adapt to fit their needs. That's not to say you need to comprimise completely, but that way you get an understanding of how to sell your ideas.

So does the future of the contest still look bright? Well, as long as the authors are having fun sharing ideas and there is still support for the process, I say YES! I look forward to many more months of baiting.

Metal Gear Solid vs. F.E.A.R. vs The Legend of Zelda vs. Ghost Recon

Hey all, Zgamer here. I thought I'd start off easy on ths site with a vs. So, I decided it would be on the video game baits. Of the four biiggest ones, which are between me and James Somerton, which do you think was the best written?

Analyzing and Predicting the Globes

Well, I'm not to surprised at the nominees although most of the authors are I feel that we got it pretty right. Here are my predictions and an analysis afterward...

Best Picture Drama


Bloodshed


The Informer


The 27th Victim


Lucky Clover


Oil


My main surprise in this category would have to be Lucky Clover because although it was hyped by a few I didn't think it would be enough to score a nomination. I doubt it will win simply because although the buzz is there not to many have jumped on the band wagon. The 27th Victim probably won't take it because it is not that hyped and just ok reviews. Although Bloodshed is a strong contender I don't think it will take the award because it isn't Daniel's best work and lack of buzz. That leaves The Informer and Oil left and while Oil is the likely candidate because of the huge showing of nominations I don't think that many people will say " You know I want to give it Best Picture" however the same can be said for The Informer. While many will say Oil has the edge because of the nominations factor my prediction is the latter because it is a soild bait that is a great read and pretty baity too.

Prediction: The Informer


Best Actor Drama


Topher Grace for Gray Daze


Chris Cooper for Bloodshed


Javier Bardem for The Informer


Patrick Wilson for The 27th Victim


George Clooney for Oil


No surprises here pretty much what I expected, but I don't think there are many contenders in the category. Chris Cooper is the dark horse in the race because no one is really saying this is outstanding casting or love his role he may get a couple of votes, but not enough to win. Patrick Wilson has a great role, but the buzz train stopped at Grace Station. While Oil has a huge amount of buzz, Clooney doesn't so I wouldn't look to him for the win. That leaves Grace and Bardem and Grace is miles ahead of Bardem in terms of buzz so I bet he'll take it by a landslide.

Prediction: Topher Grace for Gray Daze


Best Actress Drama


Sanaa Lathan for Running Miles


Emma Thompson for Lucky Clover


Glenn Close for The Last Page


Rene Russo for The End of the Alphabet


Samantha Morton for Flint

Kind of surprised that Morton made the cut as well as Russo other than that it was expected. I doubt that Russo or Morton will win because of the lack of buzz. Lathan is a possiblity, but I don't think there will be enough votes. Emma Thompson could win, but like Russo and Morton there is not buzz. So I'm gonna go with Close for the win.

Prediction: Glenn Close for The Last Page



Best Picture Comedy/Musical

Behind the Show

Captain Fantastic

Glitz

It's A Public Life

Mom is 80

Song And Dance Man

One of the trickiest ones to predict, but I doubt that the Song and Dance Man or Mom is 80 will take home the Globe. Captain Fantastic doesn't have enough support along with It's A Public Life. That leaves Behind the Show and Glitz and I'm gonna guess that Glitz doesn't have the support to win so I'm going with Behind the Show.

Prediction: Behind the Show


Best Actor Comedy/Musical

Kevin Spacey for Behind the Show

Philip Seymour Hoffman for Captain Fantastic

Jim Carrey for Glitz

Nicolas Cage for Song and Dance Man

Steve Carrell for Standardized Text

No surprises here and I think Nicolas Cage is the dark horse and has no chance of winning. Jim Carrey and Steve Careell don't have the buzz to pull off a win. Leaving P.S.H and K.S and I think that Kevin Spacey will take it with the best role/casting in the group.

Prediction: Kevin Spacey for Behind the Show


Best Actress Comedy/Musical

Regina King for Behind the Show

Renee Zellweger for Glitz

Ellen DeGeneres for It's A Public Life

Bea Arthur for Mom is 80

Toni Collette for Song and Dance Man

I doubt that Toni Collette will take home the gold as well as Regina King. Bea has been praised and critized, but I wouldn't be surprised if she wins. Renee has the buzz, but a lot of people hated the bait. That leaves Ellen and while everyone loves Ellen a lot of people didn't like the bait. I'm betting Renee will win.

Prediction: Renee Zellweger for Glitz


Best Supporting Actor

Edward James Olmos for The Informer

Denzel Washington for Running Miles

Christopher Plummer for Oil

Liam Neeson for Lucky Clover

Alec Baldwin for Mom is 80

Dennis Quaid for Bloodshed

Not thinking that Liam, Alec, Dennis, or Denzel will win so don't count on them. I think it comes down to Edward and Christopher and give Christopher the edge because of the nomination count.

Prediction: Christopher Plummer for Oil


Best Supporting Actress

Thora Birch for Bloodshed

Alicja Bachleda-Curus for Behind the Show

Vanessa Redgrave for Oil

Kathleen Turner for Glitz

Juliette Lewis for Clockwork

Frances McDormand for Mom is 80


Umm I don't know about this category I'll get back on it.


Best Director

Robert Redford for Gray Daze

Abel Ferra for The Informer

Steven Soderbergh for Oil

Jim Sheridan for Lucky Clover

James Mangold for The 27th Victim

Todd Field for Tuesdays with Morrie

I'm going to bet that it comes down to Gray Daze, The Informer and Oil in this category. I doubt The Informer will win, but it is possible if it wins Best Picture. Oil is in the race because of the nomination count, but the safe bet is Robert Redford for Gray Daze.

Prediction: Robert Redford for Gray Daze





Best Screenplay

Andrew Kevin Walker for The 27th Victim

Dan Futterman and Michael Arndt for Gray Daze

Jimmy Santiago Baca for The Informer

Emma Thompson for Lucky Clover

Stephen Gaghan for Oil

Charlie Kaufman for Glitz



I doubt that Glitz or Oil are in the ballpark of winning this award, but never say never. The Informer will likely be overshadowed because of the other nominees and The 27th Victim is unlikely. Leaving Gray Daze and Lucky Clover I give the edge to Lucky Clover because I don't think it will win any other awards.



Feel Free to discuss in the forums...

Latest Anticipation...

Ok, well if you remember of couple of weeks ago I posted a ton of baits I was anticipating. Now with more baits being announced I decided I would do a Top 5 list of my most anticipated baits and awards they could/will win...

5. The Madness of H.P. Lovecraft- D.W. is a great writer and I LOVE his biopics, I'm sure it will recieve a Best Actor nod at the Globes at the least.

4. Batman- I betting that it has been so hyped it will be a dissappointment, but I bet Tony will win Best Author. It is a lock for a Best Awards Campaign nod if not win already. It will probably win Box Office Hit, there are so many creative awards possible for this bait, but I think it will have a hard time picking up any Big 8 awards.

3. Judy Live!- According to Brian they are nowhere near finishing, but whenever it does come out I'm sure that whoever plays Judy will recieve an Oscar nomination and will win the Globe if she is submitted in Musical/Comedy. Will probably be dubbed the greatest team bait ever, but I fear because it has been in production so long it will be a dissapointment.

2. Night- I'm just going to repost what I said before and I think for almost every award is possible. Also, Connor if I can read a preliminary draft that would be GREAT!

1. Grey Gardens- OMG! I CANNOT WAIT!!! I have listened to the Revolutionary Costure for Today song an MILLION TIMES! I'm sure Christine Ebersole will win the Golden Globe for Best Actress Musical/Comedy and probably sweep all the Actress awards. I cannot wait and I hope it is as good as I want it to be.

Feel free to discuss baits that you are anticipating...

Thinking Deeply About the Contest

Taking a nod from Pat's new blog about baits (patsdeepthoughts.blogspot.com) I thought I would try and figure out what this contest is really about.

Is it about rewarding baity projects even if they may not be that good, or is it about rewarding the best written bait even if it isn't that baity. My personal opinion is that you should reward the best written bait or the bait you enjoyed the most even if it isn't that baity so that it is a simulation of a normal Oscar season.

I know a lot of people disagree, but feel free to discuss in the comments section.

Predicting the Globes/SAGs

This can really be a hard thing to predict seeing as no one can really tell, but I'm going to attempt it. I won't do every category, but I will do the big 3. Also, make sure and check out D.W's new blog (dwbaitthoughts.blogspot.com) which if possible will become a partner blogger. Here are my predictions...

Best Picture Drama
The 27th Victim
Bloodshed
Gray Daze
The Informer
Oil

Alternate: Lucky Clover

Based on reviews, what the Globe nominees are usually like, and with who has voted that this is the most likely lineup of baits. I doubt that Lucky Clover will make the Globes cut, but I still think it will walk away with a TON of Oscar nominations. Although they're are many contenders, but these are the best reviewed baits of the month.

Best Picture Musical/Comedy

Behind the Show
Captain Fantastic
Glitz
It's A Public Life
Standardized Test

Alternate: Song and Dance Man

I think this will be the group of baits nominated and one of the stronger groups ever. I have to say if Holy Cow gets a nomination in this category I will be very upset because I consider it a diss to the loyal baiters of the Oscar Igloo. These are the baits with the most buzz and if any are left out look for it to be Glitz or Captain Fantastic because it may be difficult for people to decide if it is a Comedy or a Drama.

Best Ensemble

8
The Informer
The 27th Victim
Gray Daze
Oil

Alternate: Glitz

Probably one of the harder categories to predict, but I have to say that the first 3 are probably the most likely of the group, the most likely being 8 just because it has a big cast. The 27th Victim may have a hard time getting into the category, but I bet it will.

The Buzzzzzz Meter: Early June

Well stealing from my own podcast I decided I would once again crank up the old buzz meter and I'll be doing it by myself until Zgamer and I figure out how to get him as an assitant writer on the site. So with out further ado lets crank it up...

(Noises occur)

Ok well coming in with the number 5 amount of buzz is...

The Last Page

It's been called a Close vehicle by most, but this thriller could easily creep in to the Best Picture category by the end of this so called "weak month". If it scores key nominations at the Globes and the SAGs, you better believe this could easily become a Best Picture contender.

Up next at the number 4 spot is...

Oil

Many of the former winners of the contest are behind the bait and it scored 5 nominations at the festival, but didn't take home any trophies. It opened to mostly postive reviews, but not quite raves. Wait for the Globes to see if the buzz will continue.

At the 3rd spot is...

Glitz

By far the most polarizing bait of the month. Either you loved it, or you hated it, I LOVED this bait and I can see it scoring a Best Picture nomination. However, it could easily fall into the category of "Not sure it was a comedy" and not be represented at the Globes. If it is and it wins then expect it to sneak into the Best Picture category.

Coming in at a number 2 tie is...

The End of the Alphabet and Gray Daze

The End of the Alphabet- Many of the former winners have showered this bait with praise and it could easily grab a Best Picture nomination. If it is poorly represented by the Globes expect it to be lost in the shuffle and come in a number 6 or 7.

Gray Daze- Like Glitz it is pretty polarizing. Still, it won the festival which helped Rivalry at 6 PM gain glory. Josh is running a strong campaign, but wait until the Globes and the SAGs to see if it has staying power.

Grabbing the most so far is...

Lucky Clover

Has the most former winner supporters and it is a solid bait from Sergio. Although I am not a big fan of the bait, I still think it has the best chances at this point at winning Best Picture. I still think it may get lost in the shuffle and not get a Picture nomination at the Globes, but if it does be assured it will get a Best Picture nomination.

Thoughts here are the runners up...

Standardized Test
Mom Is 80
The Informer
Bloodshed
Tuesdays With Morrie
The 27th Victim

The Controversies

Ok guys please stop all of the fights in the forums and here on the blog. It is really stupid and why do they continue. Just be careful what you say and if you have a thing you would like to say someone email them personally. Not everyone needs to be involved and it is taking up space to those of us who want to talk with each other and discuss, not attack, different baits and authors.

I! Big 8 Awards

Best Picture


The 27th Victim


Flint


***Glitz***


The Informer


The Last Page



Best Director

Noah Baumbach, Mom is 80

***Tim Burton, Glitz***

Abel Ferrara, The Informer

Christopher Guest, Standardized Test

Michael Mann, Flint

Best Actor

Javier Bardem, The Informer

Topher Grace, Gray Daze

Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Captain Fantastic

***Kevin Spacey, Behind the Show***

Patrick Wilson, The 27th Victim

Best Actress

Bea Arthur, Mom is 80

Glenn Close, The Last Page

Faye Dunaway, Elm Falls

Nikki Reed, Mindset

***Renee Zellweger, Glitz***

Best Supporting Actor

Roger Bart, The 27th Victim

Matt Dillon, The 27th Victim

Ray Liotta, The End of the Alphabet

Edward James Olmos, The Informer

***Christopher Plummer, Oil***

Best Supporting Actress

Hope Davis, The Last Page

Katherine Hiegl, Glitz

Frances McDormand, Mom is 80

***Molly Shannon, Mom is 80***

Emma Thompson, Captain Fantastic

Best Original Screenplay

The 27th Victim

Behind the Show

***Captain Fantastic***

Glitz

Standardized Test

Best Adapted Screenplay

David Copperfield: I am Dead

The End of the Alphabet

Flint

***The Informer***

Tuesdays With Morrie

Official Blog Reviews!

Ok so here they are, feel free to comment below and I have re-read all of the baits that were entered in the festival...

The 27th Victim- It really grew on me over time! The casting is great, the story is superb, and I really hope you were planning on using the different personalitites as voices because that would be GREAT! A-

8- I'll give you this, it is pretty baity, but nothing else really worked for me. I wanted a little more info. on the characters and not just what the movie was going to be. That will probably lead to no acting nominations, but who knows. Just didn't work for me... C-

Beast Within You- Umm, not the best way to tell the story. I would rather have you just make a live action version of the Disney film. Seemed like it would come off cheesy and kinda long too. The casting wasn't very good either. D+

Behind the Show- One of the best synopsis I have read in a long time. The only problem is I wanted to know more about making the show. The casting is a bit off except Kevin Spacey is perfection in that role. Regina King is good, but Matt Brod. is horribly off IMO. Still it was a great bait and you will probably get a few awards if you submit it in the Musical/Comedy category at the Globes. B+

Bloodshed- Great director choice, and very baity. It just wasn't anything special, but still a very solid bait. Expect to make the Top 10. B

Captain Fantastic- Overall it is a disappointment, but still a very soild bait. You have a fantastic cast and it is just good. You'll probably get at least an Honorable Mention. I liked it and I hope you submit it in Musical/Comedy. B

Clockwork- I'm mad that you didn't use Drake Bell because he is all over the posters and I was looking forward to him. Just not that good my opinion didn't change from the festival. C-

Cooking Class- I wanted it to be a heart warming Little Miss Sunshine kind of comedy, but that was no where. The casting is ok, but not that great. Under sub par... C-

Dark Night- FANTASTIC POSTER! Good acting choices, but it was boring and I didn't want to continue reading. C-

David Copperfield- The cast was way too much and there wasn't a press section! However the synopsis is nicely structured. Just ok, but not amazing. C

Elm Falls- I hate how it seems that they don't know they are getting together. I'd rather have it like a Brothers and Sisters (the show on ABC) feel to it. Still the parents are perfectly cast and it had the potential. C+

End of the Alphabet- I don't see why this is getting the rave reviews it has gotten. It's not horrible or anything, but I don't think they are completely deserved. While it is a good bait I felt a bit compelled to like it and it didn't live up to expectations. I do like that you used Dennis Quaid though. B-

Flint- The story is great, but the cast isn't so. I really liked the story of this bait and would make a fantastic heart pounding movie, but the cast didn't seem right to me. Still a great bait that I applaud! B+

Glitz- Jim Carrey and John Litgow seem mis cast to me, but other than that the cast is perfect and your bait is fraktastic! Renee Zellweger is fantastic pick and the premise is laugh out loud hilarious. I felt so bad thinking the whole bait was funny, but this would make a fantastic movie that would probably become one of the most controversial films ever. Still, I want to see this made into a movie and very few times have I read a complete synopsis of a bait and enjoyed it all the way through. Fantastic I LOVED IT! A

Gray Daze- I wanted a dark comedy and it was no where to be found. Topher Grace gets my vote for Best Actor, but I wanted it to be more comedic and it wasn't which was disappointing.

Holy Cow 3!: I didn't like the first 2 at all and this one didn't change my mind. I don't see Judd Apatow directing this and I find it an insult to the community to release a bait like this. F

How Things Change: This is a comedy? It seemed just stupid to me and would work better with more in it and as a drama. I was disappointed. C-

The Informer- I really liked this bait. It would make a good movie, but I didn't like it as much near the end. Still an enjoyable bait that is one of my favorites of the month. A-

It's A Public Life- My bait, I will not review. FYC

The Last Page- A great Close vehicle and you took advantage of an underused actress which I applaud. A great story that has a great cast (except I don't know about Freeman) and one of the better baits of the month. B+

Lucky Clover- Didn't keep me interested and seems too much like a Thompson vehicle that didn't work for me. C-

Mindset- Why Shia? Always him! Still it had a great premise that I thought didn't go the write way. Shia is miscast IMO, but Nikki Reed should get a Best Actress nomination for this. Just not that great, but would be a WHOLE lot better without Shia. C

Mom is 80- Who is Anne? Molly Shannon is perfectly cast and should be in you nominations part and Alec Baldwin is starting to be used to much. Bea Arthur is great, but I don't see a story. I see the set up and even a little tease would have been better. Also, I think this was submitted to the festival a while ago. C

Oil- IMO George Clooney is miscast, but Christopher Plummer should get an Oscar nomination if not Win for his role because I think that is pitch perfect casting. Interesting premise, but the Clooney casting really runined it for me. Still a good bait though. B-

1000 Paper Cranes- This is really what the Academy would love, but I can see it being a bad movie. Didn't do it for me, but still a true Oscar bait. C-

Pillow/Menu- The grammer was pretty bad and the story didn't seem baity at all and the casting was off. Not the great D+

Running Miles- I don't really like this bait all that much and it changed A LOT from the festival which is against the rules. Originally it was a Disney film and it really makes me mad that you changed it so much. D+

Song and Dance Man- Nicholas Cage is terribly miscast, but the beggining of the story is fantastic. Started out great, but fell from grace much like the character in the bait. C+

Standardized TeSt- I can see this as a film, but the casting isn't what I would have done. Still it is a solid bait that I hope does well. B

Tuesdays With Morrie- It really grew on me and I wish it the best. I'm sure it will do well at the Oscars and it is an Oscar bait. Good job Z! B+

Thats all I have Big 8 to come soon...

The Comedy Trilogies

Ok, this one is a 3 way fight between the Hollywood Sucks trilogy vs. the Holy Cow! trilogy vs. The Gone With a Dream trilogy. Which is your favorite?

The Wall vs. Silence Tally: 3-1 Silence wins ( I may make this into a tournament, thoughts)

Also be sure and check out Brian from Arizona's blog Oscar Obesession at...

oscarobesession@blogspot.com

James vs. James: The Wall or Silence?

Wow, I really thought that Ironic would win, but it lost by a vote of 4-0! Now I ask is Silence still the forum favorite it once was, or would everyone rather climb The Wall?

My Personal Vote: Silence

Ironic Nonfiction vs. Wackos

Brian from Arizona has a blog on blogspot called oscarobsession.blogspot.com and he has been doing a thing where he has readers pick one movie over another. I thought that this could be good for the Bait an Oscar blog so our first match up is Ironic Nonfiction vs. Wackos. 2 critically comedies, but which one is your favorite. Leave a comment with you vote and if you don't have an account just create a Google account and you can leave a comment. Also let me know if you want to be a writer on this site. I am working on making Zgamer one, I just don't know what the problem is.

Ironic Nonfiction vs. Wackos

Analying the Festival Winners

Well, as we have seen in previous months sometimes the Festival gets it really right (February for instance) and they're are other months when we get it really wrong (December) so will this month be a February or a December? My guess is more of a December because some of the winners got so-so reviews. However leave your comments on the winners below.

Festival News

I have determined the winners and I am 1/2 way done with writing the ceremony and I have determined that this will probably be the lsat ceremony that I write for the festival. It takes a lot of work and I don't have that much time.

FYI!

FYI, I will accept press releases to put up about your baits (i.e Casting News, Poster Designs, etc) just email them to me at michael@brungerfamily.com

Festival Nominations

Well, all I can say is I think that I think we got it right and I am proud of my bait, It's A Public Life, getting 5 nominations (the most for a bait that didn't get a Golden Igloo nomination this month) and the 3rd most overall (don't hold me to that). This is kind of the weak news part of the month, but once the baits are released, there will be lots to talk about including reviews (everyones not just mine), Pat's Big 8 (I don't know why but I really get excited for this!), and Golden Globe/SAG nominations. I'll also do a weekly buzz meter similar to what Zgamer and I did on the podcast. What do you guys think of the new It's A Public Life poster???

Or should I use this one?

Which one??

May 2007 Wrap Up

As the May competition comes to a close it should be a time to reflect. On the awards that were given out, the reviews, and the predictions.

If my math is correct I got 9/24 correct on my Oscar predictions ( that is including Shameless Oscar Vehicle) and for the 3rd time the winner of the festival (BP winner) won the contest (BP again). The Golden Globes which in the past have proven a lackluster predictor (Only 4 of the BP winners either Musical/Comedy or Drama have gone on to win the top prize) was once again wrong this being the 3rd month in a row. The SAG's predicted it correctly though giving the Best Ensemble prize to Rivalry at 6 PM which went on to win Best Picture (This would be the 2nd month in a row).

Rivalry at 6 PM debuted with a TON of buzz from the festival winning a whopping 5 statues including the coveted Golden Igloo and many other prizes. Rivalry did ok at the Golden Globes winning 3 awards that night. It won 2 awards at the SAG awards including Best Ensemble. Dominion had won BP at the GG and Best Director for M. Night. Prompting me to believe that it would top the Oscar list even though it clearly did not nearly as much precursor buzz as Rivalry.

::: My Oscar Wrap Up:::

Ok so I'll come out and say it, I was surprised at many things last night when I read the ceremony, which for once I actually read the whole thing. I'll go through all the Top 8 categories and some of the Creativity awards.

Best Picture- As you already know I though Dominion would win, but I am happy that Rivalry picked up the top award

Best Director- I really did think that Towne would snab it, but alas Mann picked it up

Actor- No surprise here (although he didn't recieve a GG nod)

Actress- Surprise! I though Connie would take it, and if not her Henderson, but Linney went home with the Oscar

Supt. Actor- Huge Surprise! Went I came across that cateogory I almost passed it because I was sure that Hawke would win.

Supt. Actress- Probably the least eventful category of the evening I would have bet my life on the fact that Vera would win.

Original Screenplay- I was leaning towards Dominion because I thought it would take Picture, but I am really happy Rivalry won.

Adapted Screenplay- Some other Authors thought this was an open and shut category and I really didn't think so. I thought that they would give it to Zelda because James wrote a great bait, but I was kind of surprised that Woolf won.

Awards Campaign- Didn't see this coming at all

Online Awards Campaign- Sorry I and I don't want to toot my own horn, but I was feeling that I would take this award. Congrats to Bryce though!

Tagline- I though Suburban Hymns would take it because it was kind of semi liked but not adored and this would be the bone.

Author- Wow, didn't expect this one. Congrats to Ryne though!

June 2007: A Preview

I won't give to much away, but I will say that June will be the banner month for a few things...

"I enjoyed the beginning, but I wanted it to go in a different direction!"

"It didn't keep me interested"

Overall I would say that it will be B to D month

That said there are really great baits, but I think they will be grains of salt on a beach.

Anticipation...

The bait festival is underway and that brings up the topic, what baits are you really looking forward too. Here are just a few of mine and a couple that I am wondering what happened too.

Judy Lives- What happened to this bait? It's been in the works for a while, but I haven't heard anything about it since March.

Dark Night of the Soul- It's in the festival so I'll be able to read it, and Tony is so consistent with his work.

Captain Fantastic- I think Elton John is amazing and Pat is another consistent author, should be fantastic.

Gray Daze- I have to say that I am really only anticipating this bait because of the poster (which is FANTASTIC) and it's in the festival so I'll be able to read it.

After Earth: The Dark Side of the Sun- I absolutely love this trilogy, I still think the 1st is the best, but I cannot wait for the next installment. I really think they would make great movies and I just can't express my love for these baits.

Night- The book was fantastic and I was starting to develop into a bait, but I think Connor will capture it better seeing the book is a combination of The Breadwinner and The Devil's Arithmetic. This has the potential to win Best Picture (not trying to overhype) if the director choice and cast are perfect (which thats not too hard) I think this could be once of the best baits of all time. (Connor don't take this the wrong way and let it get in the way of writing the bait)

Legend of Zelda: The End of Forever- I thought the first was wrongfully hated and I think the next could be really good.

Batman- Not the most baity subject, but I think that Tony will make it fantastic, and if he doesn't win for Dominion, I think he'll probably at least get Best Author for this.


What baits are you guys anticipating?Also, if you are interested in being a co-writer please create an account and leave you email as an email, and I'll invite you. So far Zgamer has expressed interest so we may post a weekly podcast again (here of course)!

EXCLUSIVE: Interview with Johnny Alba

Disclaimer: This interview took place on June 1st, 2007 through email. Johnny really did answer these questions. If you would like to see the transcripts from the interview, please email me. Enjoy!

I!: Johnny, let me start off by saying thank you for doing this interview. Now let's get into it, what are your thoughts on this month's baits?

Johnny: As I previously stated, I thought this month was one of the best yet in the contest. We are having some troubles putting together our final Top 10 because so many baits deserve recognition and that is obviously a sign of quality.

I!: It sure is, now do you have a favorite bait?

J: From 2006, I selected Ironic Nonfiction as the Editor's Best Bait of that year (on the Best of 2006 Awards Page), I have also enjoyed the Fresh Heir Series, Wackos, The Arabic Cafe, The Wall, The World's Longest Suicide & Photograph. I won't reveal any preferences for this year's bait until it's over out of respect to every contestant.

I!: Of course, what has been your favorite month of the contest or the strongest?

J: The strongest Top 5 yet, in my opinion: August (Photograph, The Arabic Cafe, Wackos, I. Bergman and Fresh Heir III). March and April 2007 have also been really solid.

I!: Definately, do you anticipate certain baits or do you feel like that influences you too much?

J: I never read Buzz Threads until I have read and uploaded all the baits, that way I make my own opinions the baits and judge them without any kind of bias. Of course there are baits that grab my attention for its Oscar-friendly attributes but execution is always my priority.

I!: Cool, Do you listen/pay attention to buzz and the online campaigns?

J: I pay attention on the FYC campaigns before reading the baits, I pay attention to the Precursors Buzz after I have read all the baits, and this allows me to compare what I thought with what the community thought as well.

I!: That would be kind of hard for me, why did you create this contest?

J: The Oscar Igloo is a community; I have always encouraged the free exchange of opinions in order to stay away from the bias that affects most Oscar-buzzing websites. I wanted to create an engaging feature that would allow people to interact and compete and so, I came up with Bait an Oscar. I never expected it to become such a passionate and involving experience and I'm proud of its constant evolution.

I!: A tournament sounds fun as like a summer thing because a lot of us have more time on our hands. Well, thank you for your time Johnny!

J: Thank you!

Analyzing the Best Picture Nominees

As May has now come to a close, the winners of the Oscars have yet to be announced. Although I already posted my complete predictions, I didn't quite look at any of the nominees in depth. So with that I look at the coveted Best Picture nominees and decide how I think the Top 5 places will go...

In a sub-par month for baits (IMO) the Best Picture nominees seem a bit unnormal for "Bait" standards, we have a category full of really not that baity subjects.

Beeville, TX really came out of nowhere as a BP nominee this month and took everyone by surprise. Although it does have a GG M/C BP under it's belt it hasn't really had to much attention. Some question the Alexander Payne director choice (myself amoung them) and it debuted to mixed reviews. It has a warm comedy feel to it, but I don't really see it as baity.
Chances: 100:1

Dominion a bait written by the always popular Tony seems to have the most buzz surrounding it even though it is a M. Night bait. Traditionally, his films aren't that baity and they don't usually fair well with the Oscars (both real and fake). On the plus side it is written by Tony whom many seem to think is WAY overdue for his BP title and many could vote for him simply because he is a very consistent author. Chances : 5:2

The Guy Who Owned the Store: A very strong bait that I could easily see taking the crown in a month like this, but there isn't really any buzz. It has mostly postive reviews behind it, but hardly any awards to back it up. It is Bryce's 2nd incredible month in a row so the votes may want to give him the award, the question is do the want to give Bryce a BP before other more sucessful authors? Chances: 50: 1

Rivalry at 6 PM: Debuted with overwhelming buzz from the Festival and since then just took off. No one is really talking about it anymore, but it recieved a stunning 10 nominations for relatively new author Patrick D. The fatal question looms in the air, do they want to give a really new author the top award? Chances: 15:1

Rush: This bait really has the strongest recent buzz coming into the awards, but it faces the same problems that Rivalry does, is a "new" author going to win the top award. My guess is probably not, but it does have strong critical support. Chances: 10:1

Here is how I think the ranking will go...

1. Dominion- even though it is unbaity, Tony is the most expierenced of the authors and it's a solid bait.
2. Rush- A strong debut and the buzz to do with it.
3. Rivalry at 6 PM- Although I personally would give it the #1 slot, the buzz may have been a little too much.
4. The Guy Who Owned the Store- A strong bait and Bryce has really come into his own
5. Beeville, TX- A nice warm comedy like this is lucky to get a BP nomination with the little buzz it had going in.

Thoughts?

May 2007 Oscar Predictions

On Sunday, June 3rd the May Oscar winners will be announced. I can hardly stand that I have to wait another 2 days to find out who the winners are simply because we were teased with the nominees almost a week ago. Here are my predictions for the ceremony and I may not give a complete explanation on all the categories, and I will pick who I think will win, regardless of if it is my bait or not...

Best Plot / Synopsis
Beeville, TX
Dominion
Fatally Yours
From Here to There
Rivalry at 6 PM
Rush

I'm Rooting For: From Here to There
Who I Think Will Win: Rush
Who I Think Deserves the Win: Rivalry at 6 PM

Best Awards Campaign
Dominion
Ghost Recon
The Guy Who Owned the Store
The Legend of Zelda
Livestrong
Rivalry at 6 PM

I'm Rooting For: Rivalry at 6 PM
Who I Think Will Win: Dominion
Who I Think Deserves the Win: Rivlary at 6 PM

Best Online Awards Campaign
Bright Lights, Sinly City
Clue
Diary of a Sociopath
The Guy Who Owned the Store
Rivalry at 6 PM
Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

I'm Rooting For: Clue (my bait)
Who I Think Will Win: Diary of a Sociopath
Who I Think Deserves the Win: Rivalry at 6 PM

Best Title
Bright Lights, Sinly City
Cold Welcome
The Guy Who Owned the Store
The Human Hole
Rivalry at 6 PM

I'm Rooting For: Rivalry at 6 PM
Who I Think Will Win: The Guy Who Owned the Store
Who I Think Deserves the Win: Cold Welcome

Most Likely Bait to Become a Box-Office Hit
Assassins
Clue
Dominion
The Legend of Zelda
Livestrong
Rush

I'm Rooting For: The Legend of Zelda
Who I Think Will Win: The Legend of Zelda
Who I Think Deserves the Win: The Legend of Zelda

Most Likely Bait to Become a Cult Film
Barely Standing
Holy Cow 2!
Diary of a Sociopath
The Guy Who Owned the Store
The Honest Liar
Suburban Hymns

I'm Rooting For: Barely Standing
Who I Think Will Win: Suburban Hymns
Who I Think Deserves the Win: Suburban Hymns

Most Original Bait
Beeville, TX
Dominion
Fatally Yours
From Here to There
Newton's Third

I'm Rooting For: From Here to There
Who I Think Will Win: Beeville, TX
Who I Think Deserves the Win: Dominion

Most Original Character
Sam Aronson, played by Jake Gyllenhaal, in Cold Welcome
Andy Denton, played by Jeremy Renner, in Dominion
"Linda" Johnson, played by Julia Roberts, in Drag Queen
Henry Gray, played by Paul Giamatti, in Diary of a Sociopath
Colin Doherty, played by Jim Carrey in Late Night
Rémy Gris, played by Mathieu Kassovitz, in Manhattan Life Portrait

I'm Rooting For: Diary of a Sociopath
Who I Think Will Win: Dominion
Who I Think Deserves the Win: Cold Welcome

Best Cast
Assassins
Clue
From Here to There
The Guy Who Owned the Store
Rush

I'm Rooting For: Clue (my bait)
Who I Think Will Win: Rush
Who I Think Deserves the Win: From Here to There

Best Casting Choice
Evan Rachel Wood as Natasha Corey in The Human Hole
James Denton as Lance Armstrong in Livestrong
Vera Farmiga as Sheryl Crowe in Livestrong
Laura Linney as Brynn Hartman in Supernova
Alec Baldwin as George in Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

I'm Rooting For: Alec Baldwin
Who I Think Will Win: Vera Farmiga
Who I Think Deserves the Win: Vera Farmiga

Best Crew
Beeville, TX
Fatally Yours
From Here to There
Ghost Recon
Rush

I'm Rooting For: Ghost Recon
Who I Think Will Win: Fatally Yours
Who I Think Deserves the Win: From Here to There

Best Tagline
"Taking a gamble always has high stakes" Bright Lights, Sinly City
"When you are on the stage, you are another person" Drag Queen
"Riding was his life. Survival is his legacy" Livestrong
"Welcome to the suburbs, where life truly is a movie" Suburban Hymns
"A Woman Without Sanity. A World Without Mercy" Supernova

I'm Rooting For: Bright Lights, Sinly City
Who I Think Will Win: Suburban Hymns
Who I Think Deserves the Win: Drag Queen

Funniest Bait
Beeville, TX
Clue
From Here to There
Holy Cow 2!
A Stage of Fools

I'm Rooting For: Clue (my bait)
Who I Think Will Win: Beeville, TX
Who I Think Deserves the Win: A Stage of Fools

Best Poster
Clue
Diary of a Sociopath
Dominion
Livestrong
The Legend of Zelda

I'm Rooting For: Clue
Who I Think Will Win: The Legend of Zelda
Who I Think Deserves the Win: Diary of a Sociopath

Best Author of the Month
Special Achievement on Writing and Creativity
Tony (Dominion)
D.W. Dillon (Fatally Yours)
Ryne (Livestrong)
Patrick D. (Rivalry at 6 PM)
Ross (Rush)

I'm Rooting For: Patrick D.
Who I Think Will Win: Tony
Who I Think Deserves the Win: Tony


THE BIG 8 AWARDS

Best Picture
Beeville, TX
Dominion
The Guy Who Owned the Store
Rivalry at 6 PM
Rush

I'm Rooting For: Rivalry at 6 PM
Who I Think Will Win: Dominion
Who I Think Deserves the Win: Rivlary at 6 PM

Best Director
David Fincher, Cold Welcome
M. Night Shyamalan, Dominion
Robert Towne, Fatally Yours
Marc Forster, Rivalry at 6 PM
Michael Mann, Rush

I'm Rooting For: Marc Forster
Who I Think Will Win: Robert Towne
Who I Think Deserves the Win: Michael Mann

Best Actor
Paul Giamatti, Diary of a Sociopath
Jeremy Renner, Dominion
William Shatner, From Here to There
Willem Dafoe, The Guy Who Owned the Store
Ray Winstone, Rivalry at 6 PM
Alec Baldwin, Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

I'm Rooting For: Ray Winstone
Who I Think Will Win: Alec Baldwin
Who I Think Deserves the Win: William Shatner

Best Actress
Connie Nielsen, Fatally Yours
Florence Henderson, From Here to There
Felicity Huffman, The Human Hole
Laura Linney, Supernova
Michelle Pfeiffer, Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

I'm Rooting For: Florence Hendersen
Who I Think Will Win: Connie Nielson
Who I Think Deserves the Win: Florence Hendersen

Best Supporting Actor
Michael Cerveris, Assassins
William Hurt, Bright Lights, Sinly City
Bruce Willis, Dominion
John Turturro, The Guy Who Owned the Store
Ethan Hawke, Rivalry at 6 PM
Heath Ledger, Rush

I'm Rooting For: Ethan Hawke
Who I Think Will Win: Ethan Hawke
Who I Think Deserves the Win: Ethan Hawke

Best Supporting Actress
Rachel Harris, Clue
Faye Dunaway, Cold Welcome
Toni Collette, Diary of a Sociopath
Vera Farmiga, Livestrong
Zooey Deschanel, Suburban Hymns

I'm Rooting For: Rachael Harris (my bait)
Who I Think Will Win: Vera Farmiga
Who I Think Deserves the Win: Faye Dunaway

Best Original Screenplay
Beeville, TX
Dominion
Fatally Yours
The Guy Who Owned the Store
Rivalry at 6 PM
Rush

I'm Rooting For: Rivalry at 6 PM
Who I Think Will Win: Dominion
Who I Think Deserves the Win: Rivalry at 6 PM

Best Adapted Screenplay
Assassins
Clue
Ghost Recon
The Legend of Zelda
Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

I'm Rooting For: Clue (my bait)
Who I Think Will Win: The Legend of Zelda
Who I Think Deserves the Win: Ghost Recon

Thats what I think, feel free to discuss....

Welcome!

Welcome to the site! Here you can find exclusive interviews, reviews, press releases, and extensive campaigns for the Bait an Oscar season. If you would like to advertise, give press releases or ask questions, feel free to email me to propose your idea and I might let you advertise. You can contact me, Michael at michael@brungerfamily.com , make sure and keep up and I think this is the beginning of a beautiful friendship!