To Predict or Not to Predict

This months precursors and Oscars have been all over the map compared to recent months, which makes writing for blogs and predictions quite difficult. With a number of prominent authors gone on vacation, there isn't much buzz circulating about any bait, which leaves a lot of the cateogories this month wide open.

So in just looking at this months SAG nominations, hopefully you'll see why this month has no clear frontrunner in any category.

-OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE-

Cher in Seven Days to the Weekend

Abbie Cornish in Mario Puzo's: The Family

Brenda Fricker in The Beauty Queen Of Leenane

Vanessa Redgrave in The Thirteenth Tale

Dominique Swain in Broken Pieces

Tilda Swinton in The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

As far as past contests go, this is probably the most competitive this category has been for quite some time seeing as there are so many fantastical baited actress' in this category. Supporting Actress is actual quite consistent this month (save for Andrews/Fricker who both weren't on both the GG and SAG shortlist), I think there are still a few names you can rule out of winning at the awards shows. Dominique is unfortunately featured in the Joseph Gordon-Levitt show and will probably make the end 5, but will probably not rise to the top. Cornish is featured out of a cast of a ton of talented actors and will probably be overshadowed by bigger names in the category. Fricker will have the toughest time out of the 6 nominated to make it to the Oscars because she was left off the GG's shortlist. Andrews/Redgrave will duke it out for the nomination with Redgrave winning seeing as she has a more buzzed about/praised bait. Swinton and Cher are the only two locks IMO and I think that Swinton will probably come out on top at all the awards ceremonies.

Will Win: Tilda Swinton in The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time (SAG, GG, and Oscar)

-OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE-

Robert Englund in Springwood

James Franco in Judas Iscariot

John Malkovich in Secret Identity of The Heart

Armin Mueller-Stahl in The Hussein Room

Al Pacino in Mario Puzo's: The Family

Alex Pettyfer in Mario Puzo's: The Family

Much like the previous category, only 2 names differ between the two lists (Malkovich/Davies) and it will difficult for both of them to reach the Oscars this month, but I'm giving the edge to Malkovich. Also like the previous category is that The Family is represented highly once again, but I think just like in the last case, this will hurt the nominees and probably split the vote, unless Pacino rises to the top. ALSO just like the previous category is that it is a two horse race, this time between Mueller-Stahl and Franco. I think in the end the terriorst will win over Jesus though.

Will Win: Armin Mueller-Stahl in The Hussein Room (SAG, Oscar)

James Franco in Judas Iscariot (GG)

-OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE-

Laura Linney in Don't Ask, Don't Tell

Charlize Theron in I Want To Have Your Babies

Naomi Watts in Death Inside Her

Rachel Weisz in Condemnation

Kate Winslet in The Last Night

Best Actress is more of a wide open race then the past few months with no clear frontrunner(s) at all. While, Linney, Theron, and Watts all scored both SAG and GG nominations for their performances, Weisz came out of nowhere and scored one, while Winslet succeds here for The Last Night and not the more acclaimed performance in The Thirteenth Tale whereas she succeded for The Thirteeth Tale at the Golden Globes. I besides Weisz and Winslet, I think Linney is the farthest shot from winning simply because no one has been talking about her bait what so ever. Theron has a baity role, but I think in the end Watts will rise on top because her bait has the most buzz out of all the other nominees. However, I think it will be a shock when Theron ends up walking up to the podium at the Oscars.

Will Win: Naomi Watts in Death Inside Her (SAG and GG)

Charlize Theron in I Want to Have Your Babies (Oscar)

-OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE-

Casey Affleck in Only the Weak Survive

Jeremy Davies in Judas Iscariot

Michael Gambon in Mario Puzo's: The Family

Joseph Gorden Levitt in Broken Pieces

Mads Mikkelsen in The Secret Identity of the Heart

Like many of the other categories, only one name was did not show up on the Globes shortlist and here it was Affleck who was deserving of a nomination in both precursors. I think this will be a situation where the vote will split with the precursors but end up going with the SAG's. I'm predicting a Judas sweep at the Globes and Davies will be included, however, I think the SAG's will go with Gorden Levitt.

Will Win: Joseph Gorden Levitt in Broken Pieces (SAG and Oscar)

Jeremy Davies in Judas Iscariot (GG)

-OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY THE CAST OF A MOTION PICTURE-

Broken Pieces

A Call For Blood

The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Mario Puzo's: The Family

The Secret Identity of the Heart

In this case, I'm going to predict Best Picture at the same time I predicting Cast of a Motion Picture which are kind of unrelated, but at the same time, not unrelated at all. I think in this case, what will win Best Picture at the Oscars isn't even nominated here, but I think what will win Cast of a Motion Picture is quite evident.

Will Win: Mario Puzo's: The Family (Screen Actors Guild- Ensemble)

Judas Iscariot (Golden Globe- Best Picture Drama)

The Hussein Room (Academy Awards- Best Picture)

March Igloo Winners!

Note: I've decided that I will no longer announce nominees, just winners and runners up.

Best Picture

**Judas Iscariot**

Runner Up: The Hussein Room

Best Director

**Milos Forman, Judas Iscariot**

Runner Up: Stephen Frears, The Family

Best Actor

**Jeremey Davies, Judas Iscariot**

Runner Up: Owen Kline, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Best Actress

**Rachel McAdams, Springwood**

Runner Up: Marcia Gay Harden, Medea

Best Supporting Actor

**Armin Mueller-Stahl, The Hussein Room**

Runner Up: James Francos, Judas Iscariot

Best Supporting Actress

**Cher, Seven Days to Weekend**

Runner Up: Tilda Swinton, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Best Original Screenplay

**Springwood**

Runner Up: Death Inside Her

Best Adapted Screenplay

**The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time**

Runner Up: Medea

The Andrews Author Award

**Brian (AZ)**

Runner Up: Evan (NY)

Best Ensemble

**The Hussein Room**

Runner Up: The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Best Performance of the Month

**Cher, Seven Days to Weekend**

The Dreamer Award

**Marcia Gay Harden, Medea**

The I! Excellence Award

**The Hussein Room**

The Sunshine Bait

**The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time**

The I! Hall of Fame Inductee is..

James Somerton

who is the most innovative author on the site and makes anything he touches better. He wrote 3 great baits this month that will live forever along with his other classics. Congratulations James!

Spring Break & the March Oscars

NOTE: With Spring Break being this week, at least for me, there will be a lot of updates on the blog during the next few days so always stay tuned.

This months Oscars may possibly be some of the most competitive yet because of the number of strong baits duking it out to be in this months top 5. Although, I'm going to say right up front, this will be the most unpredictable Oscars yet.

Why? Because with everyone being away on Spring Break (or so I guess) there has been the possible littlest turnout EVER for the nomination ballots at the Golden Globes, National Board of Review, and the Screen Actors Guild awards. Particularly the Golden Globes, where only 3 ballots have been turned in. I for one, believe that the GG's are the best precursor to predict Oscar wins, but rest assured that this month there will be a vast difference.

This is because the nominations will likely be all over the place seeing as there are only 3 ballots which will be extremely different. Also, at least for me, this month it was more about picking the baits that were the lesser of 2 evils. This month was really weak IMO and will probably go down in history as one of the weakest as well. Many baits are just okay which in a weak month leads them to "outstanding" reviews.

Just look at all the big 8's that have been posted on the fourm, there is almost no bait that is on every list. It's because of this that many baits, will likely be forgotten in the Best Picture race this month. The Musical/Comedy category is probably the weakest since September of '07 (no offense to any winners) with no really strong baits coming out in that genre, making me regret not sending another musical or comedy in this month.

Back to the Spring Break issue, there are so many people not active on the forums/blogs, that no one is really predicting anything this month. Chris' normal Big 8/Technical Awards hasn't been announced this month, and Pat's blog has been dead since January (anybody know where he is?). Douglas' blog is blooming however, but I hesitate trusting it too much seeing as he hasn't won BOTM yet (I still love the blog Douglas, keep the great stuff going. I check it daily!).

I don't know if this is just because of Spring Break or what, but I hope this isn't the downfall of the contest or anything. So everybody, come out and make nomination ballots for the precursors because I think it's starting to become a thing we take for granted.

Make sure and leave comments and check back for further predictions and posts!

February Igloo Winners!

Best Picture
**Cobra**
Forlorn
Hillview
Realm of the Bird
Spanish Fields

Best Director
Woody Allen, Fruit of the Poison Tree
Joel and Ethan Coen, Confessions of an Economic Hitman
Jonathan Davis and Valerie Faris, Hillview
**Paul Thomas Anderson, Realm of the Bird**
Gus Van Sant, Cobra

Best Actor
Wes Bentley, Spanish Fields
Zac Efron, Cobra
**Edward Norton, Forlorn**
Al Pacino, Fruit of the Poison Tree
Sean Penn, The Judgement

Best Actress
Maria Bello, The Almost Moon
Helena Bonham Carter, Revenant Dreams
Rosario Dawson, Cassidy Blake
**Samantha Morton, Realm of the Bird**
Mena Suvari, The Lakecliff Scandal

Best Supporting Actor
George Clooney, Confessions of an Economic Hitman
Daniel Day-Lewis, Rapture
**John Malkovich, Forlorn**
Marc Wahlberg, Cobra
Fred Willard, A Unanimous Verdict

Best Supporting Actress
Adrianna Barazza, Spanish Fields
Beth Grant, Forlorn
Felicity Huffman, Cobra
**Michelle Pfeiffier, Hillview**
Miranda Richardson, The Assassination of Margaret Thatcher

Best Original Screenplay
Cassidy Blake
Cobra
Forlorn
**Hillview**
Realm of the Bird

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Almost Moon
Bag of Bones
**Confessions of an Economic Hitman**
The Mousetrap
Rapture

The Andrews Author Award
Bryce and Zgamer, Rapture
Douglas Reese, Realm of the Bird
D.W., Forlorn
**James Somerton, Cobra**
Tony, Hillview
Ryan, Fruit of the Poison Tree

Best Ensemble
**Cobra**
Forlorn
Hillview
Realm of the Bird
A Unanimous Verdict

Best Performance of the Month

**Michelle Pheiffer, Hillview**

The Dreamer Award
**Sean Penn, The Judgement**

The I! Excellence Award
**Realm of the Bird**

The Sunshine Bait
**Forlorn**

The I! Hall of Fame Inductee is...

D.W.

who is always extremely consistent with his work and have written many of the best baits on the site. Congratulations D.W.!

I!'s February Igloo Nominations

Best Picture

Cobra

Forlorn

Hillview

Realm of the Bird

Spanish Fields

Best Director

Woody Allen, Fruit of the Poison Tree

Joel and Ethan Coen, Confessions of an Economic Hitman

Jonathan Davis and Valerie Faris, Hillview

Paul Thomas Anderson, Realm of the Bird

Gus Van Sant, Cobra

Best Actor

Wes Bentley, Spanish Fields

Zac Efron, Cobra

Edward Norton, Forlorn

Al Pacino, Fruit of the Poison Tree

Sean Penn, The Judgement

Best Actress

Maria Bello, The Almost Moon

Helena Bonham Carter, Revenant Dreams

Rosario Dawson, Cassidy Blake

Samantha Morton, Realm of the Bird

Mena Suvari, The Lakecliff Scandal

Best Supporting Actor

George Clooney, Confessions of an Economic Hitman

Daniel Day-Lewis, Rapture

John Malkovich, Forlorn

Marc Wahlberg, Cobra

Fred Willard, A Unanimous Verdict

Best Supporting Actress

Adrianna Barazza, Spanish Fields

Beth Grant, Forlorn

Felicity Huffman, Cobra

Michelle Pfeiffier, Hillview

Miranda Richardson, The Assassination of Margaret Thatcher

Best Original Screenplay

Cassidy Blake

Cobra

Forlorn

Hillview

Realm of the Bird

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Almost Moon

Bag of Bones

Confessions of an Economic Hitman

The Mousetrap

Rapture

The Andrews Author Award

Bryce and Zgamer, Rapture

Douglas Reese, Realm of the Bird

D.W., Forlorn

James Somerton, Cobra

Tony, Hillview

Ryan, Fruit of the Poison Tree

Best Ensemble

Cobra

Forlorn

Hillview

Realm of the Bird

A Unanimous Verdict

::All of the Following Awards Will Be Announced With the Winners::

Best Performance of the Month

The Dreamer Award

(For the Performer who deserves to win awards, but probably won't)

The I! Excellence Award

(Most Destined to Become a Classic)

The Sunshine Bait

(Bait with the Best Feel)

The I! Hall of Fame

(Can be awarded to anything or one assosiated with the contest)

Looking at February Contest: Before It Even Starts

What is this month going to be like? Well, the speculation has already started, once it was announced that the contest selection was a tremedous 25 baits. As Bryce previously stated, the big contenders seem to be coming from baiters that haven't had much of the spotlight lately, and I'm here to say, that don't forget about our veterns, but there'll be a few newbies too...



The Newbies



Jeffrey's "Revenant Dreams"- This little bait has been coming out on a lot of people's list and all we can do is wait for the festival nominations to see if it will pay off. There's one problem, will the quality be able to withstand authors that campaign their baits and are prominent on the forums?



Patrick D's "A Statistic"- This may be a stupid question, but is this the same Patrick from "Rivalry at 6 PM" fame? If so, I have no doubt that this will be absolute quality, but we'll have to wait to see what the hype is about.

George's "The Man and the Window"- Sounds interesting and comes from an up and coming author, I think this has great potential, but only time will tell. I have a feeling this may not need as strong a campaign as others, but will the buzz last?


AJ's "From Ritz to Rubble"- This bait is definately going to be all over the forums, but will it help it or hurt it? There's a balance that needs to be met involving quality, right amount of exposure, and buzz. One of the riskier baits of the month.




The Spoliers


Douglas Reese's "Realm of the Bird"- Much like AJ's bait, it's really risky, but I think this will probably has a better balance of what I talked about with AJ's. If if can be strong and not keep people guessing, expect this one to pick up steam quick.

Zgamer/Bryce's "Rapture"- Could this be the next BOTM? Team baits are definately in, and Z has yet to be rewarded for his usually top-notch Video Game Adaptations. I think it has a lot going for it, but I have a feeling the people who feel that we should all be doing baity subjects may not vote for it.

Evan's "The Cloud Chamber"- Having read the bait in development, this could be as big, if not bigger than his past best "A Corner of the Universe". If the kinks are worked out and the balance that is needed is there, look for it to be a contender.

Ryan's "Fruit of the Poison Tree"- Like a lot of other baits this month, it's risky, and also having read it during it's development, it also had a few kinks to work out. If it can stay on the voters minds, and fufil's the potential it had, it has the poise to be a Best Picture winner.


A-Listers


D.W.'s "Forlorn"- Similar to the past two, I have also read this, except it was the final draft. It has a lot of Edgar Allan Poe overtones (which I LOVED) and is really a bait to lookout for. Having his A-List status usually means that D.W. doesn't really need to campaign to have his bait remebered, but with a little extra push I have not doubt this can crack the top 5.

Tony's "Hillview"- Just looking at the posters and short synopsis for this bait, it has to be my most anticapted bait of the month. Knowing the campaigns the yet to win BOTM author usually brings out, I think this will the bait to beat for the month.
(Extra Bonus: It features my best girl, Michelle Pheiffer)

Pat's "Cassidy Blake"- Pat is probably the biggest author in the contest, and this lastest bait, directed by Quentin (need I mention his last name), sounds like it could be a great, or absolute crap. Based on the buzz right now, it seems to be the latter. Nevertheless, expect this to be a solid bait, despite the buzz level.

James Somerton's "COBRA"- James only had modest success the past few months, but I'm going with the crowd who says this will put him back on top. However, it has to overcome the risky casting of Zac Efron in the lead role.

Here are my current predictions...









Others in Contentions:
Rapture
Fruit of the Poison Tree
A Statistic
The Man and the Window


Contrary to what some are saying, I think this month will be a lot of bigger profile authors recieving much of the acclaim, but I think this month's crop of Newbies, is one of the best we've had in a while. Making this February, one of the most interesting to come...


Note: There are many more baits with buzz, but I didn't feel they fit the subject of the article.

Pssst....Who's the New Guy?

In the past few months most of the bait of the month winners have been people who were overdue (harry and Chris P.) or past time winners (zGamer and Pat), but when was the last time a new guy came and returned a kick to score a touchdown? (It's a metaphor for bait of the month and woot! Giants!) Well no need to try and remember because this month will probably be the month a new guy wins bait of the month. Why you ask? Well after reading this month's festival baits (25 baits! That was a workout) these new guys are going to rock the hell out of febuary, and there looking for blood. Let me start by saying that I was very impressed with this batch of festival baits and February will be a great month. These new guys however, they have some impressive baits. Among them is Jeffrey's "Revenant Dreams", Patrick D's "A Statistic", George's "The Man and the Window", and AJ's "From Ritz to Rubble". But let's not forget the kings of oscar igloo. James Somerton's "Cobra" is amazing, along with D.W.'s "Forlorn", and Michael is back with "Mame". There are alot more great baits I didn't get the chance to mention but I predict February is going to be one hell of a ride (especially for predicting)