August Oscar Watch: A Big 8 Rundown

The Bait an Oscar community waited axciously for ended up being hours for the Oscar nominatinos, and much to our surprise, there were a ton of HUGE surprises this month. So here at I! we thought we'd give our view on this month's nominations with a few predictions as well.

Best Adapted Screenplay
La Bella y La Bestia
Cry to Heaven
**The Film Club**
Sands of Mars
Sweetest Girl

This month, I think the actual Big 8 nomination count will influence how the Academy voted. In the cast here, The Film Club recieved the highest amount of Big 8 Oscar nominations (5) and I think it is the clear frontrunner here regardless of nominations. However, in this month full of surprises, I wouldn't be extremely shocked if La Bella y La Bestia took home this award. Traditionally, Adapted Screenplay has had a clear frontrunner, yet another bait comes along and wins.

Winner: The Film Club
Spoiler Alert: La Bella y La Bestia


Best Original Screenplay
American Hollow
Blackbirds
**Chateau Marmont**
Cloverleaf
The Drifter

A strong category this month with 2 close competitors duking it out for the win. My guess is the Cloverleaf and Drifter are long shots here, and that Blackbirds remains in the race because this is probably the Big 8 category it has the biggest chance in. American Hollow will probably lose to Chateau Marmont here, in a somewhat surprisings upset. By the way, where is Trick?

Winner: Chateau Marmont
Spoiler Alert: American Hollow

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, Cloverleaf
**Marie-Josee Croze, Chateau Marmont**
Anna Faris, No One Knew Her Name
Janeane Garofalo, The Film Club
Natalie Portman, Sands of Mars

First off, WHERE IS EMILY BLUNT? I'd argue one of the biggest snubs of the year considering that she won the Golden Globe and was nominated at the SAG's. However, without her I think Croze will take the gold for her double SAG award winning performance in the masterpiece Chateau Marmont. Don't count out Garofalo though, if The Film Club ends up on a losing streak at the Oscars, look for her to win the category. I also wouldn't completely count out Portman who shines in Sands of Mars, the vote could split between the two titans baits (Croze and Garofalo) and she could sneak in.

Winner: Marie-Josee Croze, Chateau Marmont
Spoiler Alert: Janeane Garofalo, The Film Club

Bset Supporting Actor
Warren Beatty, Cloverleaf
Robert Duvall, American Hollow
Peter Facinelli, Cry to Heaven
**Paul Schneider, American Hollow**
Anton Yelchin, The Film Club

A tough category this month, seeing as American Hollow could easily rule the category, or split their vote allowing Yelchin to sneak in and win. I'm going to bet however that Schneider wins the Oscar this month, and Yelchin comes in a not so distant second. Plus, WHERE THE DEVIL IS TIMOTHY HUTTON?! He slowly moved his way up to frontrunner status and then completely was skipped over for a nomination. Even funnier, a multitude of Oscar voters have said that 1. they put him on their ballot and 2. They had marked him down as the winner of the category. Bait an Oscar conspiracy...

Winner: Paul Scheider, American Hollow
Spoiler Alert: Anton Yelchin, The Film Club

Best Actress
Blythe Danner, No One Knew Her Name
Sarah Michelle Gellar, Chateau Marmont
**Mary Steenburgen, The Drifter**
Julia Stiles, Trick
Tang Wei, Losing Xiang

Danner may be considered the frontrunner here now that Regura was amazingly snubbed, but I'm putting my money on Steenburgen to take the Oscar this month in a truely great performance, and this will probably be the only place that The Drifter wins an Oscar this month.

Winner: Mary Steenburgen, The Drifter
Spoiler Alert: Blythe Danner, No One Knew Her Name

Best Actor
Hank Azaria, The Film Club
Javier Bardem, La Bella y La Bestia
Leonardo DiCaprio, Blackbirds
Tommy Lee Jones, The Drifter
**Nick Stahl, American Hollow**

My personal pick for Best Actor is somehow missing this list, which to me is unbelieveable considering Gaspard was brilliant in Chateau, but we're left with this list and I really believe that this will be as expected and Nick Stahl will pick up a much deserved Oscar for his performance in American Hollow. Azaria will probably remain a distant second for his role in The Film Club.

Winner: Nick Stahl, American Hollow
Spoiler Alert: Hank Azaria, The Film Club

Best Director
Peter Bogdonavich, The Drifter
Francis Ford Coppola, American Hollow
Cameron Crowe, The Film Club
**Guillermo Del Toro, La Bella y La Bestia**
Christopher Nolan, Blackbirds

In one of the bigger Best Director races in Bait an Oscar history, many are predicting a two horse race for the statue, the two horses being Coppola and Crowe. While in that race I'd probably give the edge to Crowe, something tells me that there vote will split and the artistic vision of Guillermo del Toro will lead him to the podium at the ceremony.

Winner: Guillermo del Toro, La Bella y La Bestia
Spoiler Alert: Cameron Crowe, The Film Club

Best Picture
American Hollow
La Bella y La Bestia
Chateau Marmont
The Drifter
**The Film Club**

This is undoubtably one of the hardest Best Picture races to predict within recent memory and will go down as one of the most historic wins in Bait an Oscar history. I almost immeadialy elimiate Bestia and Drifter from the list, because the three titans that will likely rule the Oscar this month, dominate the category. Each have multiple things going for it, American Hollow has the biggest number of nominations, Film Club has the reviews and the awards success (see the Festival and the Golden Globes, and Chateau has the reviews and some awards success. My pick to win ends up being The Film Club, which will be Brian's first BOTM win in a very very long time. However, I'm going to guess that Chateau will probably come in second and the possible spoiler is American Hollow.

Winner: The Film Club
Spoiler Alert: American Hollow