Wednesday, July 23, 2008

July Oscar Watch: Best Actor


1. Jack Nicholson, After the Fall- Even though he didn't win any major precursors, I believe the veteran will beat out Derek Luke. To my knowledge he has never won an Oscar (in the contest, haha) and this is the perfect role for him. Look for the "surprise" victory here.

2. Derek Luke, Tuskegee- This is a really close one guys, but I think the old pro will take the award. Luke has won the major precursors though, so he is the favorite, but I would expect an upset of sorts here.

3. Liam Nesson, Hale's Inferno- He did well at a few precursors, but there was no NBR love at all. While an award would be deserving, look for all the glory to go to costar Sir Ian McKellan.

4. Viggo Mortenson, The Architects of Fear- Mortenson/Cronenberg projects have become very common these days, I think in response to this, the academy will shut out the talented actor for a bigger name star.

5. Lee Pace, The Violinist- Like I said earlier, a nomination is likely, but only because voters loved the bait. The question remains, is he taken seriously enough as an actor to be nominated?

Still in the Running:

6. Mandy Patinkin, Neighbors- As I have also said earlier, if Neighbors gets a BP nomination look for it to get a lot more nominations than expected, this could be one of those surprises.

July Oscar Watch: Best Actress


1. Julie Christie, Neighbors- In a moderate upset over "frontrunner" Sigourney Weaver, I pick Christie to take the Oscar this month. Neighbors is the Julie Christie show, and After the Fall (as I have said before) will be successful in some different categories, this is where Neighbors will take the spotlight.

2. Sigourney Weaver, After the Fall- A considered frontrunner will not be taking home the Oscar this month, but rest assured the bait will be rewarded in a different place. She still has a big chance, but I feel like it's just not the right time.

3. Jennifer Connelly, The Architects of Fear- Connelly has a big chance to in my opinion, this is a situation where the "Top 2" battle it out, but the 3rd just sneaks past them and wins. Keep an eye out for her, she may be the one at the podium.

4. Kou Shibasaki, Sacred- If the bait is rewarded in any major category it could be here, but I think it will likely be ignored across the Big 8 board. Still, she gives a fantastic performance that still has a chance at winning the gold.

5. Ayelet Zurer, In the Land of Eden- The more I think about this bait winning awards, the less I think it will happen. Look for her to be unfortunately overlooked in a strong month for Best Actress.

Still in the Running:

6. Meryl Streep, The House of Bernardo Alba- She may not have been buzzed about at all, but don't completely count her out. She got moderate percursor support, but it's likely her other competitors will blow right past her.

July Oscar Watch: Best Supporting Actor



1. Sir Ian McKellan, Hale's Inferno- A legendary actor gets his well overdue Oscar, and it is much deserved in his most compelling yet. He may not have the most buzz, but he has the acclaim, and the Academy will reward Hale's Inferno with a win here.

2. Tom Sturridge, The Violinist- He may have just as many "precursor" wins as McKellan (each with 2 a piece), but look for The Violinist to be rewarded in other categorise this month. Although, Sturridge did gain the SAG's support, I don't think it will warrant a win for him.

3. Hugh O'Connor, After the Fall- Much like his costar Sophie, they will both fall fate to no Gold come Oscar night. Their costars are just too strong in the film, and the film won't sweep the awards either. I just don't think he'll win, although he has the most precursor nominations out of the bunch.

4. Christian Clemenson, The Monster of Florence- With not as much buzz, and a bit of a controversy regarding if the character even should have been cast, this makes him a risky bet. Yet, if he isn't nominated, Monster has no one in the acting races, which is rare for such high Best Picture contenders.

5. Joe Odagiri, Sacred- Odagiri has managed to make two key short lists this month (SAG/The Bait Spot), but failed to win either, or reach the Top 3 with the NBR. While this does hurt his chances, a strong role helps him to a nomination.

Also in the Running:

6. Joel Grey, Neighbors- Except this to happen if Neighbors picks up a Best Picture nomination and Christie wasn't the only standout performer...

July Oscar Watch: Best Supporting Actress



1. Rosemary Harris, The Violinist- My predicted winner of the category. Winning the SAG really boosted her to frontrunner status, and even though she didn't make the NBR Top 3, I think she'll pull out the only acting win for the likely Best Picture winner.

2. Angela Bassett, Tuskegee- Harris, barely beats out Angela for the Oscar. Bassett gave a first-rate performance that will likely be ignored for the veteran. A win is more likely on her part if her costar Luke does not win his category. Still, I think she'll have to wait a while to get her Oscar.

3. Sophie Okonedo, After the Fall- If you look at the stats, she's the most likely candidate to win, but something tells me that she will be overlooked come the end of the month. Her problem: Two A-list costars who are both neck and neck with their competitors.

4. Shohreh Aghdashloo, In the Land of Eden- A bit more of a risk to put money on her, but she is the next in line as far as buzz is considered. A powerful role, in an accalimed bait, and a weak month, usually equals a nomination.

5. Joan Cusack, Baked Alaska- The biggest change of not getting nominated lies here with Joan. I pick her to round out the 5 because I think this is what most people will do on their ballots "Oh, I need a fifth nominee, I'll put her in..." The NBR helped her out, but doesn't guarentee a spot for her at all.

Also in the Running:

6. Sienna Miller, The Violinist- She made the SAG cut, and Cusack didn't. The fact that The Violinist is the front-runner helps, but the fact that her co-star is in the same category doesnt.
Stay tuned for more detailed predictions!

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Zgamer's Official Statement

The following is a recording of a press event held by Zgamer, the head of the Golden Globe panel, following the recent publishing of I!'s article:

"Hello and thank you all for coming. At this time, I would like to address the recent article on I! criticizing the GG panel's decision to suspend this month's progression. Before I elaborate, I would like to say I am not mad that the article was posted. We are all respectable authors on this site and we each have our own opinions. The right to express those opinions are part of the basic principles of our country. However, I feel it would be better for one of the panel members to come out and publicly address the issue before it gets blown out of proportion.

"First, this decision was just as hard on the panel as it was to the voters. It took much thought and consideration, but in the end the panel found it may prove beneficial in the long run. I know this is upsetting, as we have not missed a month of broadcast since the precursor was handed over to me by Harry almost two years ago. Still, everything happens for a reason.

"The primary reason for our decision was a combination of details. First, we felt that at the time when the deadline had been reached, we simply didn't have enough baits to accurately justify a group of nominees fitting the public's opinion. Because seriously, do we want four people, with one of them a panel member,to decide what baits garner buzz? While others have attempted to send ballots encouraging to revoke our decision, we just feel it would ruin the integrity of the panel members and this long standing precursor to change it now. Second, the fact that people have only really tried to vote after we made the decision was one of annoyance. We feel that we gave a reasonable amount of time to allow people to send ballots and they never came. It just felt wrong.

"Now, I would like to address the recent complaints surfacing as to why people have either not voted or think the contest does not allow proper voting procedure. The biggest being that the precursor has continued to uphold the policy that voters cannot vote for their own baits. While we are not blind to the fact many precursors have changed their standing here, it just isn't in the interest of this panel as of now to change that policy. For almost two years, there had been no problem withhaving people not vote for their own baits, as we usually received a good number of ballots throughout. Besides, what point is there to healthy competition if we let people vote for themselves? Is it fair to tip the scales towards your bait when maybe there may be another one more deserving? Even I know that I don't always write the hit of the month, but I always make sure to support other people who do write the classics and hits of that month. Sure, it may hurt a bait's chances of garnering praise, but not if enough people vote with support for it. So perhaps the problem is not being able to vote for yourself, but getting enough people to vote for your bait. Our decision will not be swayed though and our policy of not voting for your own bait will still stand.

"The other complaint mentioned addresses frustration towards finding baits to fill categories when there are a shortage, especially in Comedy/Musical categories. I personally think this is a more justifiable excuse and both of the panel members are currently in talks of addressing it. Our current plan being discussed is to put a link to the 'Bait Genre' thread that's started every month so people can find the nominees needed to fill their ballots. This is easy to do and we hope this will be resolved for next month's ceremony.

"As for the complaint about time constraint and extending our timetables, this will be harder to fix but not impossible. See, each timetable is constructed with the hopes the the ceremonies will be finished prior to the announcement of the Oscar nominations with the hopes it will generate buzz for nominees. However, this also conflicts with a common argument that the precursors hold no real power over the outcome of the Oscar nominations. Seriously, so what? The purpose of this contest is to emulate the real Oscar race and in almost every Oscar race, precursors usually generate buzz no matter how big or small and even they aren't always correct when concerning predictions. Now this isn't truly the real reason why there may be problems with the timetables. Since Johnny Alba does not always announce when the nominees will be unveiled before the precursors start, it's hard to tell how long we have to get everything put together.So we try to estimate a reasonable amount of time at which the GG can be completed done before the Oscar nominations. The panel understands this concern though and we will address this in our e-mails so we can make the time for voting suitable for everyone. It won't do much good if people don't vote though.

"Again, I take no true pleasure with these recent events, but perhaps it is for the best it happens now rather than later. We will do our best to fix the concerns with time to vote and accessibility of genres, but in the end we really need to people to participate. This has been a major issue for some time and we share your concern. So perhaps we will truly act on Douglass's video message and become more active in the forum and more supportive of each other. I promise to do this and everyone else should to. Only by doing that can the contest continue to flourish."

End of Recording

Golden Globes: Ever Again?

Just a few days ago, Zgamer and Bryce (both contributing Authors to I!) said in a statement, "...We will have a hiatus this month. We hope to be back next month, but we only will if we can get more support from voters."

So why has this lack of participation occured in the contest? Author Ryne puts in his word, "I think the problem which has caused the low turn out is people dont want to search for M/C performances to nominate. It just takes forever." Chris Perkins, head author of The Bait Spot agreed with Ryne's statement also adding that "Its (GG) the only precursors that don't allow you to vote for yourself."

Many of the other precursors (SAG and NBR), have allowed voters to consider their own baits in 2 categories this month; both have also seen an increase in voting tallies.

Another point to add to the debate is the Festival, the first precursor of the month, has 4 panelists who derive the nominations, and on occasion the organizer votes as well. 4 + 1= 5, which is as many as the Golden Globes recieved this month. So why was there a need to end it? Neither Bryce or Zgamer were asked for a follow up statement, but Zgamer added on the thread "I'm standing up to my decision...it's not happening this month."

Personally, I don't understand why with only 5 ballots nominations couldn't be choosen. It's happened before, look at the May Golden Globes, 5 ballots were sent, and the nominations were fair and what the people wanted. So this is what I think needs to change with the Golden Globes...

  1. Start allowing people to vote for thier own bait in 2 categories, it will increase voter turnout. I can say that I would try a lot harder if I could vote for myself.
  2. If you have a Musical/Comedy bait, make sure and post on the Bait Genre thread where you would like to be considered in the Golden Globes. Also, if the organizers would post the list of eligible Musical/Comedy baits on the Golden Globe thread it would make it easier for people.
  3. Start posting the thread earlier and give people a few more days in the schedule.

Look, I'm not trying to sound rude, I'm just trying to get people's opinions out there so this won't happen in the future, if you care to comment, please do so and make sure and vote in our poll as well.

Saturday, July 19, 2008

Where's Maia?

Has she gone M.I.A like Pat? Especially right after her win for Darwin Discovered?